EURUSD 9.33am

Well, this is looking like 5 waves up again and perhaps the 5th in something! Notwithstanding the wave count, I am still trying to short this 'top' (assumption) and still can not bring myself to go long; well not as long as shorting keeps working for me, which it has all week. I am so bored of telling the same story but the market just can not make a decision so what can I do? To recap, we have come back to a trend line from 2010 in either a Kiss Goodbye or a very bullish cross. The potential for either is visceral and you can feel it is the various counts. Given the state and form of the daily SMI and the prior clear cut 'abc' shape, my favoured count is that this is a 'b' wave following that 'abc' from 1.3171 and we will then see another 'abc' down. There are other counts, the most bullish being consecutive 1-2's and this trendline is the threshold for an explosive 3rd, the power of which would turn over my SMIs, as they only tend to provide spot turns on retracements within trend. Unfortunately, all I can do is wait and try and play my game. We have come back for another touch of the gold grid-line (parallel of the green dashed 85.4% fib fan off 1.2659)which may hold or not of course. But that is 4 touches now, which coincides with the area of that 2010 trendline and the 1.3020 Gann line (off 1.2041). There is the obvious blue grid line below, which is a parallel of the 1.2041 fibfan (85.4%), which might be a useful initial target below to watch out for at 1.2950, where T4 (red thick line will be). Price has still not made it to D5 having cut D4 on the 23rd November. Given the 2010 trendline above, this may be prescient but D2 still remains the gatekeeper as it has all week, with price action laboured all the way up in my opinion. Cut D2 and D3 follows quickly me thinks especially with D4 in a topping zone now and the opportunity to backtest D4& D6 whilst it is at it - the latter was 'cut' in August to the upside and has still not been backtested. In my mind D6 is the real decision point and I would love price to get there and sort this mess out once and for all. We have negative divergence on the 240min chart again and given the SMI's have been working in this move up from 1.2659, I gotta assume they will work here too, especially with that Daily one in the topping position from the first chart today. You can see the support D4 &D6 would provide as a base camp to clear D5 on the right if price could get down there, clearing out the overbought sentiment in the SMI cluster as well. The risk is that they do not hold and something else is up more bearish, but I'll worry about that down in that zone. The 60min SMI cluster is also showing negative divergence and me thinks a move to 1.2878 will set up a bearish price envelope again sitting on T7. We shall see.