Dax Review 26th April 2015

The long term Elliott Wave Count I am running with, suggests that we are still likely in red wave 5 of blue wave 3. I can not see a lesser degree wave 4 clearly in that red wave 5, so the last week's consolidation could be part of that. Either way, still in blue wave 3 inside green wave 3 and looking for long positions on shorter time frames. Stochastics are of course overbought but can stay that way on a weekly and monthly chart here beyond shorters' pockets.

 
 

The lower band of the daily bollingers (green) was pushed last week, with the overall sidewards pattern, pushing to the right of the multiple bands, appearing similar to the set up before the break out at approx. 10500 zone. The daily stochastics have been softening as hoped for in my post 3 weeks ago, but thus far the momentum continues to suggest a consolidation. I think up first, before down to test that 10500 zone, so looking for longs on intraday chart.

 

The 4hr bollys were also getting tagged to the lower band and unless we see price drop through that zone 11000-11600 zone with any persistent force, I am looking for long positions up to retest the upper band near 12100 first. The stochastics here would support a push up into those upper multiple bands and if that were to complete red wave 5, then into the 13000s would fit the green pitchfork channel from the first chart.

The Fractal Nature of Capital Flows – Government Running Wild

by Martin Armstrong

Dax Review 19th April

Well, the index softened this week, but I do not think we have seen the end of blue Elliott Wave 3 yet. Here are my counts on the monthly & weekly charts:

 

 

Price made it to the lower band of the green bollys on the daily (20x2) below but would expect more rolling up the green dashed pitchfork (above) to tease the early shorters to distraction! Given the monthly count, not much to do but buy weakness but would prefer the daily stochs below to be pointing uphill or get to oversold as per last week's post.

Dax review 12th April 2015

The blue arrows highlight consolidation lows in this uptrend since the end of 2011 on a daily price bar chart. The multiple bollingers create visible ledges from which price and stochastic momentum lows combine to provide zones for long entries. At present, this recent uptrend has left the low bands trailing in its wake, but a pull back to approx. 10000 might see the lower bands consolidate near the breakout zone from January, and that momentum indicator reset lower.

The coming emerging market debt meltdown

The coming emerging market debt meltdown by Martin Armstrong

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In the land of the shallow pull backs, I think the Dax reigns pretty high. The reaction to the 123.6% extension and the 76.4% retracement of the ATH to recent low, has been anaemic thus far. More importantly, the 15min stochs (right) are clearly putting in a retracement after yesterday's wave up, but giving the impression that back up is probably more likely than continuing down. Yesterday's high was 9854 and for now that looks like the centre of attention. Back through today's open at 9910 and the 162% extension at 10011 is possibly on.

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Price has pushed on from the 61.8% retracement line and now approaching the 76.4%. This is also the 123.6% extension of the internal 'a-b' of this move up. Still looking for that hourly stoch to unwind to either give us an 'abc' back or another leg lower as per the 4hr chart (right). Something to hang ones coat on would be a start!

#dax $dax Are Bonds Really Less Risky Than Equities?

Are Bonds Really Less Risky Than Equities?

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Nice surprise this morning. Have dropped my cover and added to shorts at the 61.8% approach. Even a 3 wave pull back here would be worth a try, even if trend has moved back uphill. The hourly stochs have a whole cycle to unravel at some point and from somewhere around here would make sense. Would obviously prefer a new low!

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Into the target sell zone as discussed earlier. 50% retracement from the high upon us.

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Been a bit of a mooch since yesterday's rise. As I discussed then, I was working on the basis that we would get a 'b' wave pull back, and I wonder if we have already seen the 'a' leg of the 'c' leg in the form of a leading diagonal. All a bit messy but price is holding above the open at 9440 for now, and perhaps looking for shorts up in the 9650-9750 zone is the strategy to play. If the retracement of yesterday's rise to gets some wind, then buying lower would also be on the cards.

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After a 2nd retest of that 9222 retracement line, we seem to be in a pullback from the low. The 38.2% has already been hit this afternoon, but I am counting this slide this evening as the 'b' wave, anticipating a 50-61.8% top tomorrow in the 9655-9750 range to short again.

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Direct hit on the 50% retracement from 8351 to the high, but nothing broken for this downward trajectory as yet. Looking at the regression channels of this move from the high and the 'b' wave, there is a neat looking contracting diagonal rolling down to the 61.8% there. I just wonder, if a possible set up for a Santa Claus rally, might see something a little more climactic, spiking down to the 76.4% first? For now, that last zip down needs digesting.

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Been in meetings today, but this morning's post kept on the right side of price action. Shorts banked. That MyWave band is built around the 3 day adaptive MA - a 38.2%-50% pull back from the high gets back to 9602-9696. Whilst inside this regression channel, looking for shorts in that zone.

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The 38.2% retracement from 8351 to the high, sits below at 9427. If price is going to bounce back up again to kiss the regression channel of the move up from the underside or just this downward facing one (see 4hr chart right), then a stretch down to there first would make for a great round trip. At the moment price is mooching around the daily open, so decision time.

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Price has made it to the 100% extension discussed first thing this morning. Not a lot of strength in this market at the moment but would expect a bounce from here to test the 50% speedlines and weekly tramline above. Or else straight down to the 123.6% extension sits at 9527.

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Positive divergence on hourly RSi & Stochs - time for a swing up?

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The rise yesterday did not take out the previous high, so I am working with that being the 'b' wave in 'C' down. Low 9600s looks about the right place to bank shorts for me.

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Price could not hold below today's open so assuming that this is still 'b' of 'c' or still 'b' retracing the move down to 'a' - shown as an expanded flat here, but await final price action to clarify. Looking to short a turn down.

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I have added in a directional overlay (the arrows in the circle) to keep the counts organised in a slightly more objective way. They are currently holding on the hourly chart in the downward stance and as such, I am counting price as in the 'b' of 'c' downhill. If price can make it below today's open of 9772, I am looking for 9600 at the 100% extension.