EURUSD

Price has now made it to the 160day FLD as discussed in this week's posts. This is a key decision point and may be the zone for a 'b' wave consolidation, either above or under the line. I am banking all my shorts and am now out of all trades. I will wait for the hourly momentum study to reset itself. There is plenty of time for more as the 17th is my low target date. But a big haul is a big haul and even better when in my bank!

EURUSD

Whilst I am waiting for the drop to unfold, I thought I'd post a more bearish count to the 'b' wave back down, I posted yesterday. This count fits with my 'bullish' overall stance but allows for a decent pull back into a 'C' wave in 'C'. Just for musing, if we do not get traction closer to the 1.3476 low.

Montebourg Complains "Europe a Victim of Currency Wars", Seeks "Political Battle" to Devalue the Euro

From Mish Shedlock's blog: Montebourg Complains "Europe a Victim of Currency Wars", Seeks "Political Battle" to Devalue the Euro

EURUSD

Good morning everyone. Not too much happening on the surface but following on from yesterday's action plan, we do seem to have had the start of the move into the next 10day low due on the 17th. I want to be ready to go long around then rather than be trying to time my short exit, especially as I am in lectures all day Monday, so I am hoping for something bankable by Friday.

 The 60min chart does look a mess, but that is a visual clue to the corrective nature of this market at the moment. Price action is trying to marry up direction with momentum and for now, that means more positioning. We are trading under the daily pivot this morning and peppering yesterday's low. If this continues, the weekly purple FLD should get 'cut' to the downside, with the eventual target being the red 10day FLD. As I discussed yesterday, that 160day FLD is in the way - will it hold up price for a stronger move to the upside, or get breached as price moves down to the 10day? Don't know, but wanted to be positioned short, just in case of something stronger.

The 24 pip range bar chart has some very clean price action to measure eliptical patterns and a breach of the bullish blue ellipse, should see the red one take over. Obviously, I am painting an ongoing contracting diagonal and the red ellipse is measured to be the same bar count as the current blue and at the same angle of descent as the the blue's ascent. It is just a road map, but useful nevertheless.

 Thought I'd wheel out the big mama! This is a mirror harmonic square of the all time high and low of this pair, with an overlay of the 320day and 640day FLDs (which carry on from the smaller cycles in my daily posts). If we just take the weekly momentum study as our lead, it does appear that there is some more downside to be worked off, but through a diagonal formation, as I have covered over the months. So, I remain bullish but will keep playing both side until there is a clear momentum nest near those FLDs, whether through downward or sidewards action. Do note the 50% line at 1.3600 approx of the current 'square' - a breach that holds might see a return to the 90% degree line off 1.2041 at  1.3164.

The Physics Classroom

I have added a new entry on the 'Useful Resources' list. Followers of my work on Hurst may find this interesting enough! The Physics Classroom.

EURUSD

Although the expanding diagonal is looking very symmetrical, I am keeping to my expanding flat count for now, which is not so bearish in the medium term, but still calls for a drop in due course. However, I expect the next drop to be a 'b' wave in this leg up, but as long as I am short into it, I'll take whatever the market gives me.

EURUSD

 I think my count from Friday went pretty well, although I am looking for this to break down some time soon.





For those that follow along, I had placed the target boxes in the momentum sub chart a few weeks ago, s o it should be no surprise that I am expecting leg 7 to have a high and commence the move down into leg 8. This last move should complete the 80 day cycle, although I have to be wary of these longer cycles running short or long. Either way, I am looking for the 7th 10 day low to start looking for a turn down and the pace of that movement will help determine what might be on the cards.

Price continues to push against the 80day FLD (blue), but the price envelope and momentum study seem to support the likelihood of my 7th 10day low coming along soon. The elipse should mark out the uphill failure, if the high is in overnight, and any fall will push against that 10/20 day trend band to clarify any bullish intent afterwards.

So where to? Well, we have been peppering the 20day FLD at the same time as the 40day and 80day since Friday, so the only one missing in the sequence is the 10day - now look where that is? It is underneath the 160day FLD! On the move down to the 10day, the 5day FLD will also get 'cut' which would mean that since last week's sit in at the 160day FLD, price has reached back and touched all of its derivative components - the 5,10,20,40 & 80day FLDs. In my mind, any drop down should be viewed with the possibility of a decent drop or more.... just in case that 160day FLD fails this time. I have gone net short, just a little bit more to 50% allocation.

EURUSD

The small gap down was a useful starter for ten, but until that hourly momentum study bottoms out, I'll stay net short for a bit. Do look back in the posts for the cyclic phasing which suggests we are in an interim top, looking for a low into the17th. As such I'll be holding short until some sort of pattern has been constructed, that makes a breakout north look odds on. I'll either be lecturing tomorrow or trying to get through the Worcester floods, so no posts till late. Good luck everyone.

EURUSD

Edging short into the close here; Ellipse is currently holding price action but the placement of price right under the 80day FLD, and the channel UTL on the 24 pip range bar study and a possible EW count of 5 up with tired momentum on the 2hr chart, add up to me taking a chance. Only 1/4 allocation net short but enough to be worth while if something gap'y happens Sunday night and not too much of an issue if price pushes up for a bit given the cyclic phasing.

EURUSD

That's me done for the week; have covered the longs at the same price as I covered them yesterday, so very profitable in the end with the shorts banked this morning. Price is just sat under that clump of FLDs and the momentum studies are all looking tired to the upside. I am lecturing all day Monday, so hopefully some downside action to tie up with topping time on the Cyclic Phasing. I reckon the 7th x 10 day cycle top is due on the 10th, with the resultant low on the 17th, so no rush to do anything me thinks for now. Flat in to the weekend.

EURUSD

Possible short term count - running flat as 'b' wave should give way to another spike up?

EURUSD

The hourly momentum study has reset itself, leaving the 2,3&4hr studies behind. This usually signifies a 'b' wave retracement, but regardless, a break of the 10day FLD now (see green arrows) should be worth taking long, albeit NFP day is fraught with emotion. There is no sell opportunity to consider for me, as the 5/10day and 10/20 day trend bands are in a bullish configuration. Only if the latter turned down again, would I wait for a retracement to sell and that is not going to be today. So either my longs get going or I'll be covered below R1 and the 1.3526 square root line and wait it out.

EURUSD - Pitchfrok study

If that cluster of FLDs breaks to the upside from my last post, the Pitchfork storyboard suggests that the 'diagonal' could be on - follow the green dashed perimeter lines and next target (blue square box). The 16hr momentum study still says to me, this is 'c' up in an expanded flat, but I'll take anything northbound for sure.

EURUSD

Price has settled down near the Daily Pivot and the 10dayFLD. A 'cut' up here could have some legs into the cluster of FLDs around 1.3630 above. If it broke through there, something bigger is happening, but for now, looking to lose shorts with cover under the recent low.

EURUSD

Overnight action has seen price cross the 10day FLD (red), but is now sitting under the daily (bright blue) with the 5day (purple) sitting near S1. In a perfect world, I'll be able to bank all my shorts from yesterday's 1.3613 near there (the 5day FLD) with cover for the longs below the 1.3476 low. Anything that makes this possible 'b' wave look like something different and I'll just stay flat through NFP and possibly the weekend. I am not interested in any northbound movements until the momentum studies soften. Catch up later.

EURUSD

So, after yesterday's fireworks, what will NFP do today. For now, this grind sidewards is either a 'wave 4' or a 'b' wave. I have marked it out as a 'b' wave for now, although it could turn into a 'ii' of a diagonal in due course, but we can not know that till more action follows. The momentum studies up to 4hrs in duration are overbought, with little softening happening with overnight action, so I am still flat and sitting on my hands. I am expecting a deeper retracement and would be happier nearer 1.3530-1.3540 to reassess.

EURUSD

De cyphering these FLDs is worth the effort in my view. Price has not yet crossed the 10day FLD, having bounced hard from the 5 after Claims. Even if price does cross it, where would the 5day and 20 day FLDs be in respect of matters - somewhat below, I would say. There are only two ways price can get back to those FLDs: either go sidewards and wait for the FLDs to catch up or go back and collect them. In this particular situation, the 10day FLD is near vertical and even a 'cut' up might result in a quick descent the other side to pick up the 5day FLD. Staying flat!

EURUSD

I am covering my longs here at 1.3614 and taking a breather. Everything has gone according to plan, notwithstanding the slow start this week. Price is however almost at the conjunction of the 10, 40 & 80day flds. As, price had been hugging the 160day fld all week and these lesser order flds should and have been proven to be targets, but with the first meet and greet, I'd rather go flat here.

EURISD

This is how I am counting it for now since the low at 1.3476. With the 5day FLD now backtested, looking for push up to reach the higher order FLDs above, assuming the low holds.

EURUSD

Just had the 10day/20day MAs cross up with the 2hr momentum study at half mast. The break up in the 60 minute chart posted this morning already, should coincide with this one moving up too and pushing the MAs higher. It is the consolidation, or otherwise, that will tell us what the bigger picture is really doing, but for now, that is the 5,10 & 20 day trends all turned bullish on my charts, coming off Monday's 20 day cyclic phasing low, albeit using up valuable energy in drifting like this.