EURUSD

Well, not surprisingly, I have been banking a lot of my shorts. I have covered the rest to go flat at 1.3818 and will reassess after a retracement back to the 80day trend line, now left behind at 1.3888. It was a little slow to turn around but very rewarding regardless. Readers might want to run back through the run of posts over the last week to see how the whole story unravelled.

EURUSD - Cyclic Phasing

Anticipating a turn down into the 80week low; cycle running long and no sign yet.

 The overall trend remains bullish but I am working on significant headwinds being likely in due course, given the above. The annual pivot and 200day SMA make possible targets, but I only have a 40 day low due by month end. As such, I am working on conservative pull back potential, until I can see what the move out of that 40day low looks like. For now, the grid line at 1.3925 has been acting as resistance, but given that is some way above the annual S1 at 1.3835, which was already been back tested last week albeit in a 'lurch', I am mindful of another attempt at the 1.4016 grid line above.

The 80day price envelope and daily bollys have been containing price for a week or so now. I am looking for a move into the 20day FLD (orange) and the bottom of the price envelope, as a first stage of the 40day low/correction. But I have been waiting a week and 2 days already and the 80day cycle trend line (thick light blue) has been holding price up. A break of yesterday's low should help matters. Worth looking at where the lower bolly bands sit at present.

EURUSD

I am in lectures all day, so just a quick post. I have set my limit orders at 1.3770 to close all trades. This gets price to just above S3, the 20day FLD (orange) and the grid line of 1.3744. I want to push it harder but as I can not monitor the trades, that will have to do for today. Catch up later to see how this goes.

EURUSD - still waiting ......

...for the move into the 40day cycle low to get going, that is. It did look promising yesterday, but after a week of waiting/fading, I still have nothing to show for it. I have been playing around with a new presentation of all the material facts on the cyclic phasing and I have tweaked the momentum calcs again (these are seemingly very powerful now, tying directly into the underlying trends, and all colour coded), so I hope you readers out there like it. I think the chart is self-explanatory, but as the author/designer, I would! Do ask any questions you would like to. Have a good weekend.

EURUSD

Looking for late 80day cycle low on US dollar to arrive and the contracting diagonal appears to be in the right place at the right time, albeit the MMA wave is still bearish, but with diverging momentum studies.

A break northbound on the USD fits with my phasing for the EURUSD too. I am looking for a drop into the 40day low for this pair and we appear to be approaching a diagonal UTL on the 48pip range bar chart, with 5 waves up visible in the 'c' of that formation (not marked), MACD divergence to price action and overbought momentum studies.

EURUSD

Another Friday special! Price action was up in the 3.5/4 SD of the daily bollys today, but has made it back under the white dashed trend line thus far. The 20day + FLDs are all sat lower down in my target area from earlier today and the 40day cycle low is over on the right of the chart towards the end of the month, coming in at the same zone as the 80day FLD, cycle trough (blue). So, all in all, it has been a great week with catching the rise up, but I am looking for at least a return to the orange 20day FLD as a minimum to cash in my shorts from yesterday evening into today's high.

EURUSD - will ir or won't it?

Price up at the long term down trend line - negative divergence on MACD and momentum study into this point, but can go either way. I think it will back away, but I'll not be playing chicken for too much longer!

EURUSD

As price approaches the xmas high, the momentum study on the 24pip range bar chart and distance from its ichimoku cloud, continue to argue for a rest. Of course, this 1.3892 zone will have a significant source of demand and supply around it, and a pop and drop is probably on the cards. I have been fading this move up since yesterday evening, so any drop to the daily pivot or better still S1, will be a great way to the end the week. But, and a very big but, the market decides where it is going and my hoping (regardless of technical analysis) for the pull back is just that (hope) until it happens. Catch up later.

EURUSD

Not a lot of change since yesterday evening, but I am favoring an attempt to return to the 1.3745 grid line, where the 20day SMA meets the 5, 10day & 20day FLDs. At some point, the 40day low due at the end of the month will soften prices and I want to be banking shorts all the way into that. I'll reassess the pathway when that 8hr momentum study is oversold.

EURUSD

Expanding wedge on 6 pip range bar chart, to end 5th leg in contracting diagonal on 24pip chart for EURUSD?

I have the US$ looking for an 80day cycle low - will their respective turns coincide?

EURUSD

Well, so far, so good. There is negative divergence on the 40day momentum cycle (brown - sub chart) and price is in the daily bollys and pushing the white dashed trend line. I am looking for the drop into the 40 day low to set in at some point and from up here is where I wanted to be short. So, I have got everything I wanted but it is only any good, if prices start their march down hill, although the end of the month is the due low, so I won't be banking too early if she starts out in earnest.

EURUSD

Well I think my bullish wedge alternative from yesterday's post went rather well. Banked rest of  longs up here and now naked short at 60% allocation. Will reassess if 1.3835 gets taken out in a flurry.

EURUSD

That got to 1.3774 - did not catch it all but banked a lot of longs and now 1/4 allocation net short from here. Will look to move more short into the 1.3830 zone or if yesterday's low gets taken out. catch up later

EURUSD - targets

I have posted a 12 pip range bar study here to highlight the ichimoku study/break out line. The square root progression lines are down from 1.3892 in 2.8125 degree steps. The daily bollys sits in the 1.3834 zone, which is also the mid price between annual pivot at R1. Given price failed that line last week, holding up at the 1.3818 SRP line, there is likely a whole zone of supply & demand up to 1.3856 where the next SRP line sits, which if reached would carve out an ending diagonal in the bigger picture. So, up there somewhere but my goal is to bank the longs and look for a safe place to add to shorts, so I am likely to be early, especially as the 'gap' will be closed at 1.3795.

Thank you - over 30,000 visitors now

This has been my second attempt at this blog, in addition to the writing over at FXCM, so it is pleasing to see the number of visitors rising. One day, some of you might actually join in!!

EURUSD

Still holding longs with stops under 1.3699. Contracting diagonal from yesterday continues to use the 80day FLD as its spine which is currently supportive of the trend sequences laid out a couple of posts back - that is the 40x80 & 80x160day trends hold bullish, suggesting this is a backtest for now. With the 20,50 & 100 day SMAs all bullish and below price, there is little reason to be short here, but I'll go flat if the structure changes at all.

EURUSD

My longs are looking good from earlier today but a break out would give them a better chance of gaining some real returns. Obvious diagonal on the 2hr chart would see 1.3850 area - note how the 5x10,10x20 & 20x40 trends are all negative but the next 2 up to 80/160 are holding bullish in the sub-chart markers. A breakout might just conclude a retracement, so as I said first thing today, whether it was corrective or a leading diagonal, uphill would likely be the next move. How far? - we shall see.

One day........

After the kids have been paid for, well, just maybe............

EURUSD - daily chart

Price is rolling up the the white dashed trend line from the July 2013 low, and pushing into the daily bollys. We had a 20day low last week and now we are moving into a relative high before coming down into the 40day low towards the end of this month. Of interest of course, is the oversold status of the 40day momentum study (brown) given that we only just had a 20 day low. That is to say that the move out of the 80day low at the beginning of February, needs a decent response/reaction and it has not come as yet and the spikey 20 day reaction has used up a lot of energy. The flattening Ichimoku cloud and tightening bollys forewarn of the move down in due course, but there is plenty of time for a test of last week's high or even the 1.3892 xmas version before descending. I want to be short, but from higher up if possible.

EURUSD

Moved net long there using the 80day FLD and the 20day SMA as cover. It has that 'it will hold or fail' feel about it and a retest of the high is 100+ pips away. That is enough roof space for me to have a go at that. Still want to find a short position north of here, but if can catch the journey there too,then all the better.