EURUSD

Well, not surprisingly, I have been banking a lot of my shorts. I have covered the rest to go flat at 1.3818 and will reassess after a retracement back to the 80day trend line, now left behind at 1.3888. It was a little slow to turn around but very rewarding regardless. Readers might want to run back through the run of posts over the last week to see how the whole story unravelled.

EURUSD - Cyclic Phasing

Anticipating a turn down into the 80week low; cycle running long and no sign yet.

 The overall trend remains bullish but I am working on significant headwinds being likely in due course, given the above. The annual pivot and 200day SMA make possible targets, but I only have a 40 day low due by month end. As such, I am working on conservative pull back potential, until I can see what the move out of that 40day low looks like. For now, the grid line at 1.3925 has been acting as resistance, but given that is some way above the annual S1 at 1.3835, which was already been back tested last week albeit in a 'lurch', I am mindful of another attempt at the 1.4016 grid line above.

The 80day price envelope and daily bollys have been containing price for a week or so now. I am looking for a move into the 20day FLD (orange) and the bottom of the price envelope, as a first stage of the 40day low/correction. But I have been waiting a week and 2 days already and the 80day cycle trend line (thick light blue) has been holding price up. A break of yesterday's low should help matters. Worth looking at where the lower bolly bands sit at present.

EURUSD

I am in lectures all day, so just a quick post. I have set my limit orders at 1.3770 to close all trades. This gets price to just above S3, the 20day FLD (orange) and the grid line of 1.3744. I want to push it harder but as I can not monitor the trades, that will have to do for today. Catch up later to see how this goes.

EURUSD - still waiting ......

...for the move into the 40day cycle low to get going, that is. It did look promising yesterday, but after a week of waiting/fading, I still have nothing to show for it. I have been playing around with a new presentation of all the material facts on the cyclic phasing and I have tweaked the momentum calcs again (these are seemingly very powerful now, tying directly into the underlying trends, and all colour coded), so I hope you readers out there like it. I think the chart is self-explanatory, but as the author/designer, I would! Do ask any questions you would like to. Have a good weekend.

EURUSD

Looking for late 80day cycle low on US dollar to arrive and the contracting diagonal appears to be in the right place at the right time, albeit the MMA wave is still bearish, but with diverging momentum studies.

A break northbound on the USD fits with my phasing for the EURUSD too. I am looking for a drop into the 40day low for this pair and we appear to be approaching a diagonal UTL on the 48pip range bar chart, with 5 waves up visible in the 'c' of that formation (not marked), MACD divergence to price action and overbought momentum studies.

EURUSD

Another Friday special! Price action was up in the 3.5/4 SD of the daily bollys today, but has made it back under the white dashed trend line thus far. The 20day + FLDs are all sat lower down in my target area from earlier today and the 40day cycle low is over on the right of the chart towards the end of the month, coming in at the same zone as the 80day FLD, cycle trough (blue). So, all in all, it has been a great week with catching the rise up, but I am looking for at least a return to the orange 20day FLD as a minimum to cash in my shorts from yesterday evening into today's high.

EURUSD - will ir or won't it?

Price up at the long term down trend line - negative divergence on MACD and momentum study into this point, but can go either way. I think it will back away, but I'll not be playing chicken for too much longer!

EURUSD

As price approaches the xmas high, the momentum study on the 24pip range bar chart and distance from its ichimoku cloud, continue to argue for a rest. Of course, this 1.3892 zone will have a significant source of demand and supply around it, and a pop and drop is probably on the cards. I have been fading this move up since yesterday evening, so any drop to the daily pivot or better still S1, will be a great way to the end the week. But, and a very big but, the market decides where it is going and my hoping (regardless of technical analysis) for the pull back is just that (hope) until it happens. Catch up later.

EURUSD

Not a lot of change since yesterday evening, but I am favoring an attempt to return to the 1.3745 grid line, where the 20day SMA meets the 5, 10day & 20day FLDs. At some point, the 40day low due at the end of the month will soften prices and I want to be banking shorts all the way into that. I'll reassess the pathway when that 8hr momentum study is oversold.

EURUSD

Expanding wedge on 6 pip range bar chart, to end 5th leg in contracting diagonal on 24pip chart for EURUSD?

I have the US$ looking for an 80day cycle low - will their respective turns coincide?

EURUSD

Well, so far, so good. There is negative divergence on the 40day momentum cycle (brown - sub chart) and price is in the daily bollys and pushing the white dashed trend line. I am looking for the drop into the 40 day low to set in at some point and from up here is where I wanted to be short. So, I have got everything I wanted but it is only any good, if prices start their march down hill, although the end of the month is the due low, so I won't be banking too early if she starts out in earnest.

EURUSD

Well I think my bullish wedge alternative from yesterday's post went rather well. Banked rest of  longs up here and now naked short at 60% allocation. Will reassess if 1.3835 gets taken out in a flurry.

EURUSD

That got to 1.3774 - did not catch it all but banked a lot of longs and now 1/4 allocation net short from here. Will look to move more short into the 1.3830 zone or if yesterday's low gets taken out. catch up later

EURUSD - targets

I have posted a 12 pip range bar study here to highlight the ichimoku study/break out line. The square root progression lines are down from 1.3892 in 2.8125 degree steps. The daily bollys sits in the 1.3834 zone, which is also the mid price between annual pivot at R1. Given price failed that line last week, holding up at the 1.3818 SRP line, there is likely a whole zone of supply & demand up to 1.3856 where the next SRP line sits, which if reached would carve out an ending diagonal in the bigger picture. So, up there somewhere but my goal is to bank the longs and look for a safe place to add to shorts, so I am likely to be early, especially as the 'gap' will be closed at 1.3795.

Thank you - over 30,000 visitors now

This has been my second attempt at this blog, in addition to the writing over at FXCM, so it is pleasing to see the number of visitors rising. One day, some of you might actually join in!!

EURUSD

Still holding longs with stops under 1.3699. Contracting diagonal from yesterday continues to use the 80day FLD as its spine which is currently supportive of the trend sequences laid out a couple of posts back - that is the 40x80 & 80x160day trends hold bullish, suggesting this is a backtest for now. With the 20,50 & 100 day SMAs all bullish and below price, there is little reason to be short here, but I'll go flat if the structure changes at all.

EURUSD

My longs are looking good from earlier today but a break out would give them a better chance of gaining some real returns. Obvious diagonal on the 2hr chart would see 1.3850 area - note how the 5x10,10x20 & 20x40 trends are all negative but the next 2 up to 80/160 are holding bullish in the sub-chart markers. A breakout might just conclude a retracement, so as I said first thing today, whether it was corrective or a leading diagonal, uphill would likely be the next move. How far? - we shall see.

One day........

After the kids have been paid for, well, just maybe............

EURUSD - daily chart

Price is rolling up the the white dashed trend line from the July 2013 low, and pushing into the daily bollys. We had a 20day low last week and now we are moving into a relative high before coming down into the 40day low towards the end of this month. Of interest of course, is the oversold status of the 40day momentum study (brown) given that we only just had a 20 day low. That is to say that the move out of the 80day low at the beginning of February, needs a decent response/reaction and it has not come as yet and the spikey 20 day reaction has used up a lot of energy. The flattening Ichimoku cloud and tightening bollys forewarn of the move down in due course, but there is plenty of time for a test of last week's high or even the 1.3892 xmas version before descending. I want to be short, but from higher up if possible.

EURUSD

Moved net long there using the 80day FLD and the 20day SMA as cover. It has that 'it will hold or fail' feel about it and a retest of the high is 100+ pips away. That is enough roof space for me to have a go at that. Still want to find a short position north of here, but if can catch the journey there too,then all the better.

EURUSD

Holding flat still, although I was recycling that position all day yesterday (banking longs and then shorts) due to the ranging.The move down yesterday and overnight has managed to make an initial challenge of the 20day FLD (orange), having already 'cut' the 5day & 10day FLDs. This is the natural order of the 'ladder' in my working thesis, and is essential if price is to make it to the 40day FLD - see weekend report for cyclic phasing. However, the 80day FLD (blue) appears to be working as a spine to a contracting diagonal (blue dotted line for UTL) and with the 8hr momentum cluster looking messy/incomplete, I am thinking either Leading Diagonal or Corrective to be clarified in due course, with pop up either way. The fact that the 20,50 & 100 daily SMAs sit under price and are all green for bullish and saw a solid reaction last week, has me flat and cautious until I see 3 waves up to short. I may regret being flat, but that gap has not been closed and the 5day FLD (purple) has a peak to attack in the same zone. Hopefully, see you up higher for a safer place to lose the longs.

EURUSD

Nice drop in Sunday markets - I have gone flat here at 1.3754 as I am in lectures all day tomorrow and can not control anything whilst teaching. Catch up tomorrow evening GMT.

EURUSD: Weekend Analysis

Big Picture

 The monthly chart continues to show consolidation with the overall direction of the MMA Wave bullish - indicated by the blue arrow at bottom of chart (defined by it's own red 50% trend being greater than the full white trend). But with that momentum study sat where it is, one has got to be cautious of upside follow through in my opinion.

The weekly chart continues to show a bullish trend with the recent price action doing little to detract from the overall direction. The momentum study obviously shows the retracement and it diverged negatively from the price action, but whether that shows the strength of the trend or suggests the bullish action of late is a faker, is the question wracking the markets. Price and the momentum study are sat at a break out point quite clearly, but will it push through or pull back?

Intermediate Picture

On the daily chart, the 640 day MMA Wave is also bullish and has been since Sept 2012, following the pivot low in July 2012. There has not been a clean 'nested low' in momentum (sub-chart) since April 2013 and the recent 80day cycle low (see later) did not achieve one. I have placed a blue box ahead in time to remind me of this fact, not for exact timing. I have marked out orange numbers 1,2,3 - compare the price action to the thick light blue /80day cycle. In '1' the price was no where near the 80day cycle line; in '2' price rode up the back of it; in '3' price spent half the time under it and has just broken above. It appears to me, given the placement of the momentum study in the sub-chart, that the 80day trend and therefore the 640day is weakening. I, for one, do not trust the upward weekly and monthly bullish trends at this stage, and want to see a 'nested low' in the daily chart first.

 The 80day cycles are mapped out on this daily chart from the July 2012 low. They are pretty uniform, albeit I always have to contend with cycles running long or short. One can keep rolling averages of the actual length of the cycle and some analysts include the weekends in the rolling count, but I do not and the results are clear to see. The vertical dotted lines counts the exact 80 day cycle from the July 2012 low and the horizontal lines are the actual cycles, low to low, highlighted with arrows as appropriate. I have recently synthesized the momentum study in the sub-chart to provide a clearer indicator of whether the 80day cycle low has been and gone and it appears the 3rd February low was the actual low and the recent bounce has come out of the subsequent 20 day low. Price is already pushing into the daily, weekly and monthly bolly bands tops, although there 200 pips or so to the latter, with the first mid-line annual pivot sat above at 1.3834 ( R1 sits at 1.4198). I am intrigued by the negative divergence on the momentum study running into the 80day low, combined with the price action as described in the chart above. As such, I have decided to attempt selling into the 40day low, due at the end of March, rather than play the break out for now, although anything over 1.3834 and I'll be flat as a pancake - see chart 2 for clear reasoning!! The 40day low is my next place to consider a long shot and only then if the storyboard supports the bullish case is holding out.


Moving down into the 4hr chart, locate the February 80day low in the sub-chart, to tie in with the daily above. I have re-positioned the 20 day cycle to commence at that date and the striking moves up last week coincided with the first 20day low. However, although I was able to benefit from the move into that low and the move up out of it, for reasons already explained I am aiming at the drop into the 40day low to clarify any weakness in the underlying 80day trend. The 1.3744 grid line looks like a good place to start that assessment as the 10day and 20day FLDs sit there. Note also, how the 40day trough is already below those 10/20day FLDs, so any move down into the 40day low is likely to test the 40 day FLD, coming up at an angle from left to right. My best guess is that price action is going to follow the blue 80day FLD down into the trough where the 40 day low resides at 1.3560, also a grid line. We should see the brown momentum study create a low at that point as well, if all goes well. So, for now, I am not following the move up and going back to the daily chart (3), I won't until there is a nested low behind me!