Post at FXCM

On my sabbatical from writing about trading here, I'll be posting my EURUSD longer term analysis at FXCM to keep my hand in. I'll also be posting the US$ work there too.

Taking a break from blogging

Been writing a lot these past few months and interesting to see visitor numbers actually decline as my work seems (to me!) to have got increasingly accurate. I am going to concentrate on just trading for a few months now, along with attempting to write a definitive summary of how I trade the waves. I have been utilising a number of technical analysis studies in recent times and found that applying a reductive approach to them has not lessened the availability and accuracy of the trades. This will hopefully make the summary easier to write. Hopefully back in the Summer, although I'll post photographs to the collection in the interim. Thanks for reading.

AUDCAD: 10.53am

Seems to be making progress. Been a slow burner for a couple of days but a look at the daily chart shows why I am bothering!

Dow Industrials

Bouncy Bouncy! Looks like a short from up here but one day, it ain't going to bounce!

AUDUSD: 9.41am

This pair is reaching out and just above is the monthly displaced moving average. I use median based averages on very quick calcs, for these lines in the sky, and as such expect a reaction. As I am short this pair (along with AUDCAD & GBPUSD), I obviously hope for a downward thrust!

GBPUSD: 8.06am

Diagonal beginning to crack. Lots of downside targets even if only a retracement of this move up.

AUDUSD: weekend chart

Similar to GBPUSD, price moved north of the monthly cloud during the week and looks to be forming/formed ending patterns that should see a decent retracement at least. The last hourly momentum cycle did very little to the upward story Friday and I am still short here looking for clarity on the patterns lower.

USDCAD: weekend chart

This looks like a buy for me too, along with the other dollar pairs but not quite yet. Need to see that momentum cluster sunk lower or price make a break out move. USDCHF & GBPUSD look better bets for me first thing.

CHFJPY: weekend chart

I have kept way from this in the week as the monthly trend has flat-lined and price action has been in the cloud. It does look like it is working its way lower now but I'll wait for momentum to hit overbought with the trading zone underneath the monthly cloud, not buried in it.

USDCHF: Weekend Chart

Another reason why I think we will see GBPUSD & EURUSD weaken early Monday (if only in deep retracements) is clearly illustrated in this USDCHF chart. Monthly Cloud is still bullish and clean as a whistle and although thinning as it is pushed back, the momentum cluster suggest more upside to come. Combined with the other stretched pairs, this should be a tad more than another retracement cycle, but regardless, no place to short first thing, without that cluster resetting, for me.

EURUSD Weekend Chart

Still bouncy and no place to buy again. Price is still below the Monthly Cloud and although making progress now on the up cycles, I'll look to see how matters are progressing when those momentum indicators are at the bottom of the sub-chart, not the top. A test of the existing low which is found to hold, might be a buy and the only entry needed next week, but we shall see.

GBPUSD: Weekend Chart

I know where I want to buy and it is not up here. Expecting momentum to switch downhill.

AUDCAD: 4.10pm

Just how significant will the price action be when this 8hr dam finally gets punctured? See past charts for size of the diagonal on the daily!

AUDCAD:1.22pm

Last charts for a bit as bored running over same story. Here is my EW count for the diagonal. Won't be greedy tonight - 100 pips will do!

AUDUSD: 1.16pm

Looking like it is going to triangle again - 4th in 5th? Building shorts. Don't want to wait but I don't make the markets move, just bank the money when they go my way.

USDJPY: 1.13pm

Nice move on earlier USDJPY chart:

USDJPY: 10.50pm

Dollar strength coming? That momentum cluster would support a return to the monthly trend.

GBPUSD: 10.45am

Looking a tad toppy for this move?

AUDCAD: 10.00am

Bit bored waiting but continue to look for this to collapse. Charts don't say anything else to me but sell break downs.

AUDUSD: 6.41pm

An awful lot of squiggles for no net gain really. Short and waiting!

Dow Jones Industrials

Looking very ready to whoosh downhill

AUDCAD: 2.01pm

Is that about it? I hope so.

AUDUSD: 1.56pm

Chance of an entry?

GBPUSD: 1.26pm

Out of GBPUSD shorts. Just concentrating on AUD crosses this afternoon now.

AUDCAD: 12.57pm

Along with AUDUSD, I think AUD is making a top here. I am counting that expanding diagonal in AUDCAD as the 5th with this move up the 5th in that. Looking for strike down in AUD across board.

AUDUSD: 12.48pm

Looking to short the spike out of the triangle, wen it looks like it is ending.

GBPUSD: 12.06pm

Been selling into this rise the last hour: top of 8hr volatility channel, negative divergence on 4hr momentum cluster, good depth to retest consolidation area and trend lines below.

AUDCAD: 7.24am

Moving slowly, but right at the exit door now.

AUDCAD: shorting opportunity

Price at top of 8hr volatility channel on 60min chart, pushing weekly higher and nearly at monthly on daily chart. Eye drawn to the impact of the 4hr clusters on price action when the 4hr momentum clusters are overbought. Add in the status of the other timeframes and I am trying to short this diagonal formation.

EURUSD: 8.12pm

Another pip purse banked. Been a fruitful day albeit most of the rewards were this morning. Not willing to stay with this short any further given the momentum, so out for the night and back in the morning.

EURUSD: 6.30pm

Bouncy huh. I still like the look of this short and counting it in the 5th in 'c' up on the short term chart and the 4th wave in the ending diagonal on the bigger time frame. Just 10 pips higher than earlier, so short here again.

Closed all trades

Whatever I think I can see, the market is not ready to play ball yet. FOMC statement due at 6pm, so better safe than sorry. Closed all trades for small gain (best way!) and will look again later.

Dow Industrials

This index owes me a few tiddlers on the way up from 13500 and hope shorting here will rectify that. Little picture to big picture overview of why.

EURUSD: 2.54pm

Got the diagonal break; already at BE with stop and now watch.

EURUSD: 2.34pm

Looking to sell this. Short term chart counting a 3 up from bottom so far and price action is overlapping in a diagonal formation into the 6day retracement cloud, which is showing an underlying 'red' downward trend on 2nd chart. A break down could see continuation of the ending diagonal on the larger chart, which I have drawn in coming out of an expanding diagonal formation.

EURUSD: 12.11pm

Longs closed out. Been a superb run this past couple of weeks. Taking a break now till the US market opens.

USDCHF: 10.12am

Starting to look interesting to short again. Will wait for overbought momentum cluster but more action today could fill the void and get this baby ready.

EURUSD: 10.07am

Buying EURUSD on break of ending diagonal and back over annual pivot at 1.2903.