Dax Review 19th June 2016

Monthly & Weekly charts: assuming that this move down to 10500 zone is just a 'a' leg in blue wave 4. May turn into a triangle rather than this simpler pattern, but looking to buy 10400-10600 in a longer term uptrend, that does not look under any stress from this move back to the break out zone on the daily below

Daily chart shows the breakout zone being tested a little lower down and no signs of the pitchfork being broken to the upside as yet. Selling this lower into the buy zone and adding to that commitment on break up.

Dax review 17th May 2015

 
 Persistence of that weekly stochastic rolling down and the continued range bound price action suggests the blue Wave 4 may in fact be in play already. The negative divergence on the monthly chart, supports the red wave 5 being in already, although the lower order counts below look like another upside test is due.

The daily stochs look in need of upside relief and the 4hrly suggest this may have already begun late last week. I am looking for a move up to complete a red wave 'b' at about 12000 and then a move down to test that break out zone discussed in previous posts at around 10,000, unless something more complex starts to build. We will see how the weekly stochs look when that area is reached or become oversold earlier. Looks like we have a triangle in the middle of the red wave 'b' for now, so could be a slow start to the week.

Dax Review 10th May 2015

 The UK election results coincided with oversold stochastics on the 4hr chart and although the trend bands are still negative on that timescale, the 60 minute time frame and lower provided plenty of opportunities to go long on Friday. However, with overbought stochs on those timeframes and the 4hr trend band still downhill, a retest of that prior low may provide an opportunity to buy again or at the very least provide clarity on the strength of this move uphill.

Working right to left on the higher timeframes, we can see that the 8hr & daily stochs also appeared oversold, but again with downward facing trend bands. So at this level, the move up on Friday is either part of a retracement or the start of something bigger, in line with my red wave 5 count from last week into blue wave 3 top. If the pull back in the 4hr can hold the low and see the trend bands turn up, an oversold stochastics on the hourly chart after 3 waves down, could be a great place to go long with a secure low to play off. However, the positioning of those weekly and monthly stochastics, have me believing that the blue wave 3 top will see a decent pull back in due course, so new highs will see rigid stop losses! See previous posts for EW counts.

 

Dax Review 3rd May 2015

I have combined the daily & 4hr charts this morning; not a lot of change from my ongoing storyboard or the EW counts on the larger timeframes. The red dashed line at 10250-10500 in the daily highlights the break out zone from the Bollinger cluster and the over bought stochastics have eased somewhat and now showing 3 waves down. The 4hr stochs are looking oversold and the 2SD bollys there sit at 12050.

The monthly & weekly charts show price still traversing the upper boundaries of the green pitchfork within the upper side of the blue, although those weekly stochs look prescient - perhaps read my last post from Armstrong for that October 2015 focus!! I am counting this move off the top as a lower order wave 4 inside the red wave 5 of a blue larger wave 3; so anticipate a new high before a larger correction down, in due course into blue wave 4. The pace of the move still has me believing this is corrective, but as yet, it still looks like it is reaching down albeit in the latter stages, if the 4hr stochastics are anything to go by. If Armstrong's view that all governments are following ECM holds, this ride into the top could continue to be choppy.....for months! We shall see.

The New Age of Economic Totalitarianism & the London Meeting to End Currency

Martin Armstrong getting all steamed up before the October peak: The New Age of Economic Totalitarianism & the London Meeting to End Currency

Dax Review 26th April 2015

The long term Elliott Wave Count I am running with, suggests that we are still likely in red wave 5 of blue wave 3. I can not see a lesser degree wave 4 clearly in that red wave 5, so the last week's consolidation could be part of that. Either way, still in blue wave 3 inside green wave 3 and looking for long positions on shorter time frames. Stochastics are of course overbought but can stay that way on a weekly and monthly chart here beyond shorters' pockets.

 
 

The lower band of the daily bollingers (green) was pushed last week, with the overall sidewards pattern, pushing to the right of the multiple bands, appearing similar to the set up before the break out at approx. 10500 zone. The daily stochastics have been softening as hoped for in my post 3 weeks ago, but thus far the momentum continues to suggest a consolidation. I think up first, before down to test that 10500 zone, so looking for longs on intraday chart.

 

The 4hr bollys were also getting tagged to the lower band and unless we see price drop through that zone 11000-11600 zone with any persistent force, I am looking for long positions up to retest the upper band near 12100 first. The stochastics here would support a push up into those upper multiple bands and if that were to complete red wave 5, then into the 13000s would fit the green pitchfork channel from the first chart.

The Fractal Nature of Capital Flows – Government Running Wild

by Martin Armstrong

Dax Review 19th April

Well, the index softened this week, but I do not think we have seen the end of blue Elliott Wave 3 yet. Here are my counts on the monthly & weekly charts:

 

 

Price made it to the lower band of the green bollys on the daily (20x2) below but would expect more rolling up the green dashed pitchfork (above) to tease the early shorters to distraction! Given the monthly count, not much to do but buy weakness but would prefer the daily stochs below to be pointing uphill or get to oversold as per last week's post.

Dax review 12th April 2015

The blue arrows highlight consolidation lows in this uptrend since the end of 2011 on a daily price bar chart. The multiple bollingers create visible ledges from which price and stochastic momentum lows combine to provide zones for long entries. At present, this recent uptrend has left the low bands trailing in its wake, but a pull back to approx. 10000 might see the lower bands consolidate near the breakout zone from January, and that momentum indicator reset lower.

The coming emerging market debt meltdown

The coming emerging market debt meltdown by Martin Armstrong

#dax $dax

In the land of the shallow pull backs, I think the Dax reigns pretty high. The reaction to the 123.6% extension and the 76.4% retracement of the ATH to recent low, has been anaemic thus far. More importantly, the 15min stochs (right) are clearly putting in a retracement after yesterday's wave up, but giving the impression that back up is probably more likely than continuing down. Yesterday's high was 9854 and for now that looks like the centre of attention. Back through today's open at 9910 and the 162% extension at 10011 is possibly on.

#dax $dax

Price has pushed on from the 61.8% retracement line and now approaching the 76.4%. This is also the 123.6% extension of the internal 'a-b' of this move up. Still looking for that hourly stoch to unwind to either give us an 'abc' back or another leg lower as per the 4hr chart (right). Something to hang ones coat on would be a start!

#dax $dax Are Bonds Really Less Risky Than Equities?

Are Bonds Really Less Risky Than Equities?

#dax $dax

Nice surprise this morning. Have dropped my cover and added to shorts at the 61.8% approach. Even a 3 wave pull back here would be worth a try, even if trend has moved back uphill. The hourly stochs have a whole cycle to unravel at some point and from somewhere around here would make sense. Would obviously prefer a new low!

#dax $dax

Into the target sell zone as discussed earlier. 50% retracement from the high upon us.

#dax $dax

Been a bit of a mooch since yesterday's rise. As I discussed then, I was working on the basis that we would get a 'b' wave pull back, and I wonder if we have already seen the 'a' leg of the 'c' leg in the form of a leading diagonal. All a bit messy but price is holding above the open at 9440 for now, and perhaps looking for shorts up in the 9650-9750 zone is the strategy to play. If the retracement of yesterday's rise to gets some wind, then buying lower would also be on the cards.

#dax $dax

After a 2nd retest of that 9222 retracement line, we seem to be in a pullback from the low. The 38.2% has already been hit this afternoon, but I am counting this slide this evening as the 'b' wave, anticipating a 50-61.8% top tomorrow in the 9655-9750 range to short again.

#dax $dax

Direct hit on the 50% retracement from 8351 to the high, but nothing broken for this downward trajectory as yet. Looking at the regression channels of this move from the high and the 'b' wave, there is a neat looking contracting diagonal rolling down to the 61.8% there. I just wonder, if a possible set up for a Santa Claus rally, might see something a little more climactic, spiking down to the 76.4% first? For now, that last zip down needs digesting.

#dax $dax

Been in meetings today, but this morning's post kept on the right side of price action. Shorts banked. That MyWave band is built around the 3 day adaptive MA - a 38.2%-50% pull back from the high gets back to 9602-9696. Whilst inside this regression channel, looking for shorts in that zone.

#dax $dax

The 38.2% retracement from 8351 to the high, sits below at 9427. If price is going to bounce back up again to kiss the regression channel of the move up from the underside or just this downward facing one (see 4hr chart right), then a stretch down to there first would make for a great round trip. At the moment price is mooching around the daily open, so decision time.