#DowIndustrials $DowIndustrials #Trading

The Dow took a tumble yesterday, with what looks like a wave 3 in there. This suggests there is more to come and a break of the support line at 16867, will likely complete 5 waves down and then a fight back to retest the top. For now, the rsi line and the 4hr wave are holding a bullish formation, but a slide below 16867 may put that to the test and the daily wave near 15564 would be a good target. There is certainly plenty of room in the momentum study and the 60minute wave to the right is clearly bearish for now.

#Crude Oil $Crude Oil #Trading

Oil gave an excitable bounce yesterday but then dropped to a new low, suggesting a 'b' wave up and now a new leg down. The support line at 103.68 failed again, so aiming for 102.035 to try longs again. Obviously, the 4hr wave is still bearish, albeit with price pushing a bullish daily wave, I am still hoping to catch a descent run upstairs in due course.

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

EURUSD is now at the 100-127% extension of the 'ab' of this move up and now looking for a pull back. This will decide whether a larger move up is on the cards or not. 1.3574 was the low for the 60minute wave, which is now in a bullish formation, so looking for that to hold to get long again nearer there. Having said that, the 4hr and daily waves above are both bearish as of now, so that move up, if it comes, has some work to do. Otherwise, below 1.3574, will be looking to follow it down.

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

Following on from yesterday's post, I am keen to see what might happen in this next leg up in the EURUSD: will it just be a retracement of the move down from 1.3700 or take out the top towards 1.3800 with a 'b' leg completed yesterday. Of note is the Key Reversal price bars that have appeared overnight on my daily, 4hr & 60min charts. Not a bad omen for a push up, but let's see what the market actually does. I did not post the daily chart yesterday: note how the weekly and monthly wave spines sit underneath the price action and the potential for a reversal on that daily wave to start something a lot more bullish than most appear to have resigned this pair to. However, for now, that 4hr wave does look bearish and there is much to do to turn it around above 1.3650.

#Crude Oil $Crude Oil #Trading

 

4hr chart: The weekly and daily waves continue to be bullish blue, whilst the 4hr wave appears to be retracing down to them. The momentum study & rsi suggest this particular journey is coming to an end by way of the wave counts within and the positive divergence. There is some work to do to get back into that ascending channel and turn the 4hr wave bullish, but for now, a move uphill of some sort is anticipated here.

1hr chart:  the momentum study has stayed bullish throughout this last drop and indeed is showing positive divergence along with the rsi study. The daily spine is directly below and can be counted as reached, with the 4hr spine coming down at 105.60. Obviously, if the 4hr is going to get overturned, the 60minute wave needs to turn bullish and keep going once it meets that zone.

The range bar study is trying to turn up but is below the daily pivot and daily open at present and may just wait till the morning to put those beneath with much effort.

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

Price Action has been slow, so I have been tidying up the charts again. The general goal is to keep simplifying the content, whilst automating as much of the studies, so all I have to do is read the analysis already there. I am attempting to steer away from the personal counting of Elliott Waves, Hurst Cycles, Fibonacci ratios etc, on the basis, that the market incorporates all of these buffers into the PA anyways. As long as I know, that that is the case, I should be able to avoid the analysis myself and follow the waves rather than determine their reasoning.

4hr chart

The 4hr wave is just about hanging in there with a blue bullish spine, with the weekly bullish wave sitting underneath. The momentum study suggests that is it possible for price to get above that 4hr spine, but unless it does so, the daily and 4hr waves will both be bearish (the 4hr will turn red soon enough). Price also fell out of the channel as seen, but will reincorporate today's low, if price can get above the spine. What is interesting is the market's ability to keep the possibility of a resurrection on the table, whilst appearing bearish at the same time, but not quite doing enough to provide the answer. Whilst the weekly spine is below price and blue, I am keeping the bullish option alive - but it is getting weary!

 




1hr Chart

The hourly wave should turn up if the recent price action below can keep going. 1.3650 is the likely decision point and could get quite spikey if price shunts above the 4hr and does not reject as bearishly as anticipated by most at the daily spine nearer 1.3710.

Range Bar study

For now, price is moving uphill, is above the daily pivot and the daily opening price.

#crudeoil

Appears to be a spike out of a diagonal with positive divergence on the 60min. Looking for the upturn somewhere soon.

#Crude Oil $Crude Oil #Trading

The weekly trend is holding bullish, and the closest rsi suggests the uptrend from 91.21 is being tested.

The daily wave is also holding bullish and the rsi on duration looks oversold and still holding the trend from 91.21 as shown above - for now.

 The 4hr chart shows a bearish wave, in the retracement noted above and has been peppering the 23.8% fibo line of that move from 91.21. This was actively tested on the way up, 3 times, and is now being tested from above. Resistance becomes support? The 4hr rsi and momentum study are oversold and potent for an upside test. With the weekly and daily studies still bullish, I am angling long in case 23.8% is enough. Perhaps relook at the weekly chart for those upside channel targets.

The hourly chart shows positive divergence on the rsi and a possible contracting diagonal, signifying a test uphill is coming soon, if not started already. The momentum study is oversold too, but the wave had not turned up yet, so more proof required I think. I have put the fibos on the chart for the move down from 107.64 to the current low, and possibly price will be rejected up there, if we are to get a larger daily/weekly trend retracement of more than 23.8%. However, here is not the place to be deciding on that. Looking north and hoping!

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

 Weekly chart shows trend still in a bullish formation, albeit under pressure. However, the 'rsi' from the 1.1890 low has so far held its own trend, notwithstanding the pull back, and with the wave formation still in tact, I am holding bullish overall, until a test of the red 'rsi' trend line, anyhow.

 The daily wave shows the reverse: a bearish formation under attack. The 'rsi' trend from the 1.2754 low, was broken in the drop, along with the price channel, but the rsi has reversed back up, along with oversold momentum. A test of the upper perimeter of the light blue regression channel, looks like it could coincide with the test of the daily rsi red trend line. However, such a move would turn the daily wave uphill, which would then be in line with the weekly wave.

The 4hr wave is still bullish and the rsi looks to be turning up from an oversold condition. This does look like a 'b' wave manoeuvre downhill, which has thus far not turned the 4hr wave bearish, albeit the momentum study is not oversold; so there could be more after a retrace up.

So, on the hourly wave chart, we have two scenarios to consider. Is the 61.8% retracement of the move up from 1.3511 sufficient to call this retracement over and if it is, will the next leg up synchronise the 4hr, daily and weekly waves? Or, will we just get a pull back towards the recent 1.3700 high nearer 1.3656, before another leg down. Price sits at the daily FLD (orange), so it is a good place to launch a fight back, and the hourly rsi and price action Friday evening, suggests that is on the cards Sunday/Monday. I am positioned long and will see what I get in return for my risk.

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

Stanley Chiam over on Twitter had posted a Pitchfork study for EURUSD, which supports a bullish count. I have gone back to November and extrapolated all the 8hr swings to create a roadmap for such a path to 1.4070. The orange highlighted pitchfork appears to be the one in play, when compared to the RSi study. Decision time!!

 

As matters stand at the moment, the 3pip range bar study has MyWave still holding bearish: a move above the spine is needed to get matters rolling uphill again.

#Crudeoil

The choppy nature of the price action can be explained by the contracting diagonal formation on this larger scale chart. Regardless of whether it is leading or corrective, I am looking to buy the bottom perimeter for at least the 61.8% correction higher. The 'clouds' remain bullish and a turn positive in the MACD & SMi would bolster the upside. Will the next move up be the one?

#crude oil #trading

The rise from yesterday's dip is working well and the upper speedline/61.8% retracement line at 106.47, looks perfect to me. Hope the market agrees!

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading #elliott wave

If this grind sidewards is corrective, then the next stop uphill is likely the 1.3715-1.3724 zone above. Looking to release longs there and be short down to 1.3560 where the 20day FLD (orange) and purple dashed speedline reside.

#Crude Oil

Well, there was just a little more left in those shorts... so was that an expanded flat 'b' wave or end of correction down? Don't know, but trying to pick up long positions out of here as the speedline and channel bottom (and price envelope) are in conjunction with that 50% retracement line.

#CRude Oil $Crude Oil #trading

Looks like a diagonal - break up and over the opening price should see 'c' up begin. This has been a punchy end to the 'b', if it is the end, so stop seeker to the upside, I hope nearer late 106s..., to come? We shall see.

#Crude Oil $Crude oil #trading

Closed shorts at the 50% retrace of yesterday's/today's move and will see if get a 'c' leg up now to join or whether it consolidates and lets me join again short.

#Crude Oil $Crude Oil #trading

The reaction yesterday afternoon came from the 50% retracement line of the move up from 101.58. I am shorting that jump, down to the 50%-61.8% in the 105.27 zone, in case the larger move wants to keep going down to the 61.8% mark at 103.89. The speed so far of the decline this morning has been slow, so it looks like it is probably a 'b' wave down with a 'c' leg up to follow. The purple dashed speed lines are likely the top and tail targets with a breakout in either direction the end goal of this consolidation. Overall the 60minute trend continues to be downhill, with the 4hr price envelope and cloud providing support, for now. Down, up and then down again would be my preferred route.

#Crude Oil

Messed me around at entry this morning, but initial target hit.

#Crude Oil

 


4hr chart shows price holding up at the green median line. With the bolly tops at $110, I am chancing longs from 105.19, with stops already at BEven, as failure would like see a spike down. 

Entry taken off price action on 3 pip range bar study, with daily opening at 105.65 as intial target, but following trailing stop uphill. Price is currently doing battle with the median line here and Friday's low for now, but break that and daily opening should be on, with the 4hr median held below.

#Crude Oil $Crude Oil #trading

This is the updated 24 pip range bar chart of Crude Oil: price is trending down and the MACD of the price envelope is looking poised to follow through. I have not added Elliott Wave counts, but am working on the basis, we have seen 'A' down and then a 'B' wave triangle from the top and are now in 'C'. As such I am looking for short entries after strength, when price is below the daily open. For now, price is low into the bolly band, but working its way up into the price envelope. The various trend lines off the PE 'humps' suggest a decision is to be made soon enough.

The 12 pip range bar chart saw price rolling around Friday's daily open and is currently trending downhill. Whether price has more retracement work to do, will be seen tomorrow, and nearer the bolly & price envelope top would be great.