$dax #dax

Following my earlier post, 9746 is struggling here with the 15min stochs oversold again (not shown). The 4hr stoch & rsi look like they could break lower here, so I am trying a short with cover above 9800.

$dax #dax

On the 4hr chart, the Pyrapoint line at 79degrees up from 8902 is seemingly holding after a test at 9746. The next line up at 11.25degrees stages is 9870 where the channel top and pink dashed line will coincide with the top of the volatility range. The green circle lower down in the chart suggests where buying demand on this time frame may sit. In a perfect world, I'll get shorts at 9870 with a reaction down to 9500-9600 to shake the channel perimeters both sides. So, the game plan is to short again into this higher target or buy into the lower one. For now, hand sitting.

$dax #dax

I banked the shorts going into the 60min MyWave and the median line of the upward channel and am now flat and waiting. The 15min stochs got oversold (not shown) and I am waiting to see what price will do when that is overbought again. There is plenty of room in that hourly stoch for continued downhill, but MyWave is still blue and even if it fails in due course, the bullish bias still holds here for now. I'd love a retest of Friday's high or even a new high to short again, but happy out of it for the moment.

$dax #dax

Following on from the weekend post, in the short term I am looking for the hourly cycle to soften from overbought status, running shorts into a possible 'b' low as per chart, near the channel bottom. If it catches fire, great, but Monday morning and all!

$dax #dax

Price made it in to the high 9700's as hoped and as discussed I have been fading short into this.

On the monthly chart, price has made it back to the pink dashed line with the stochs & rsi only showing one wave down from the top; I am counting this as the 'a' wave with the retracement up being the 'b' wave until proven otherwise. On the bullish side, MyWave is clearly blue and the white lead line is still pulling from above, but is actually flat at present. However, the distance between this white lead line and the light green line (Senkou A) and the orange 200sma, which sit together at the bottom of the gold volatility range, and the price movement towards the lower perimeter of the 2 year channels (light blue), have me leaning towards a leg lower, even if only to test the 8902 low.

This same pink dashed line is shown on the weekly chart, where MyWave is red - that is the weekly trend continues to be bearish in my study. The 8902 low was only the 23.8% retracement of the move up from 4962 and although the light green Senkou A was tested, the weekly 200sma was not and sits lower at 7650 nearer the 50% retracement zone. The rsi is still negative and the white lead line is facing up but only into MyWave. A rejection at this pink line could be a useful place to short, although a breach would move me long again if the short term cycles could soften a bit. For me, there is nothing on this weekly chart that is screaming don't try, so I am looking to short, if given the chance.

On the daily chart, MyWave is still bullish inside a bullish channel and the 200day sma was cleared without hesitation. However, that stoch study is not making me too keen on over committing to the upside, nor the placement of price within the volatility range. The 76.4% retracement line of the move from the top did not hold on Friday and certainly did not reject, so maybe more ferretting higher, but all in all, I want to to go long lower and any turn lower would be in line with the weekly trend (see above) and a possible rejection of the pink dashed line.

The 4hr MyWave and channel is still bullish too, but the stochs again warn of being long and I'll take any weakness to be a possible fall in the weekly chart, just in case it is! The rise from 8902 has its own pink dashed line fractal which is being tested to the underside and a test of the channel line from where it broke out, could see 9300, retest Senkou A, and the lower parts of the volatility range too. I'll not hesitate to go long if the stochs can get oversold into that zone but not up here. There is ongoing negative divergence on the rsi at this 4hr level, so all in all, I'll stay with the short side approach for now.

$dax #dax

Daily, 4hr & 60min - all overbought on stochs, still testing the underside of the green cloud on the daily chart and the upper areas of their respective volatility bands. All in all, I favour a pyll back to at least reset the hourly, but hope for contagion on the higher time frames. If not this time around, maybe the next. Either way, the hourly cycle has been treating me well this week.

$dax #dax

Negative divergence holding on 4hr chart - looking for a correction downhill from 162% extension of the first leg up from the low or close by.

$dax #dax

Have banked half my remaining net longs to take me net short here at 9670. There may be some more flak to take to the upside, but overall I am looking to build a short position into the 9700s and a small net short here for me.

$dax #dax

Very nice response to the oversold hourly stochs! I have banked all net longs and gone flat into ECB at 1.30pm GMT. In a perfect world, this move up will be a 'b' wave and another drop down comes first before the rise up - something to reset my stochs here. Catch up later but no net gain for me whichever way at the moment.

$dax #dax

Price now made it back to 50-61.8% of move up from 9467 and the 60min stochs have got back into a more comfortable buying position without decimating MyWave. The volatility band is pinching, so expecting a move and hoping for northbound. Recall from earlier, if the daily ichimoku cloud is taken out to the upside, we could get some decent follow through. Well that is what I am hoping for and looking for high 9700's to look for shorts.

$dax #dax

The 60min Mywave is still bullish after yesterday's pull back, inside the upward regression channel, but both the stoch & rsi studies at this degree continue to show negative divergence. With the hourly ichimoku cloud beginning to catch up with yesterday's price action, it looks like time is being burned here rather than price decay. Price could probably go either way with the ECB, but I fancy a test of the gann grid above which ties in with the fibo targets from other charts in the 9700-9800 zone. From there, I'll be looking for shorts again.

$dax #dax

Playing short yesterday afternoon worked out fine but the daily rsi study lost its negative divergency. Obviously the stoch study is still showing it, but with price nudging the ichimoku cloud, a break here could see enough of a move to make the subsequent retracement a cloud tester from the upside. As discussed during the week, MyWave has been turning up as a result of persistence at the lower degrees and with the 61.8% retracement line defended yesterday, the 76.4% at 9777 looks a reasonable target zone. I have replaced the Bollinger band with a new study based around MyWave, which is following the gradient of the regression channel off the low, for now. So, the plan.....work off any downside remaining from yesterday's punch up and then look for a move that may penetrate this cloud. Key for me is to be on the right side of the decision, so careful is the watchword today with announcements and decisions coming out of ECB.

 

 

$dax #dax

Well, the daily cloud is still bearish and for all the excitement this morning, my stoch & rsi studies are still showing negative divergence into this peak. Price is between the 61.8%-76.4% retracement lines of the move down. All in all, I prefer attempts to short rather than break outs to the upside, as long as that cloud holds.

$dax #dax

Should of held on to those longs! Negative divergence on the hourly stochs - keeping options open to short in case of expanding flat scenario, although equal legs targets above.

#dax $dax

Useful longs yesterday now banked. My eye is on the 60min chart and the 200sma being at the bolly lower band. Seems like a better place to try to be long and if I can see that, maybe the market can too. Attempting shorts with cover above yesterday's high. Price is rolling underneath the 4hr 200sma and the daily version, as well as being underneath the daily ichimoku cloud. I'll try shorts for a bit but as I have been saying, I prefer to bank on oversold conditions on lower timeframes due to the possibility of a break of that daily cloud with the 4hr being bullish.

Daily:













4hr:













60min: 

$dax #dax

My 'rsi' studies on the daily, 4hr & 60min are all above zero and thus bullish. Price is above the ichimoku clouds on the 60min and 4hr, having back-tested the former today and held. The 60 min stochs suggest that this move back today could be a good opportunity to join the ride for a test of 9600 tomorrow. I am looking for longs until that 60min stoch unwinds.

#dax $dax

Very nice rejection: have banked shorts here and will see whether the VWAP holds above, to go short again.

#dax $dax

Price has made it to between 100-127% of proposed a-b' on the 60min chart. If that is 'b' ended or ending then target for 'c' down would be 9347-9285. Given, I am still looking for 9333, being 38.2% of the move up from 8902 on the 4hr chart, this all sits well. Looking for shorting opportunities up here, but wary as above opening price of 9497.

Daily:














4hr:















60min:

$Dax #dax

Good morning everyone. Price opened with a splash this morning, pushing above its opening line of 9471 and retesting Friday's high and the 50% retracement down from the 9600 high at 9507. My 60min stochs suggest this move up is vulnerable and I have shorted into the strength for at least a retest of the 9471 line (now at break even).

In short:

The daily ichimoku is providing bearish cover above (albeit into a bullish weekly cloud, not shown). Although the trend band turned up Friday, the stochs suggest there could be more consolidation to do downhill, although the bullish RSi has me banking my shorts when oversold intraday.

Price clipped the lower bolly band on the 4hr chart Friday and created a strong bounce. But the RSi is still bearish here and with the 38.2% retracement up from 8902 untouched, I think valuable supply has been missed so far. With the 4hr ichimoku cloud bullish, I am playing this overall move down as a retracement, especially as the daily trend band is now bullish. If the 4hr cloud gives way, I'll reassess, but shorting into it when price is below the daily open.

The hourly chart shows the ichimoku cloud under pressure here as the stochs are setting up for a test lower again, if price can hold under 9471 today. Price reached down to the 38.2% up from 9042 Friday, but the short side looks unfinished at the moment and with the 50% from 9042, very close to the 38.2% from 8902 and the hourly sma 200 being close by, that remains my target for looking for longs. With US Labor Day today, will likely trade this morning GMT and relook tomorrow.

#dax $dax

I have closed out at just before yesterday's low - enough for me this week. Catch up Monday.

$dax #dax

The opening price of 9490 was rejected again, providing another shorting opportunity. The prior low was taken out and now I have yesterday's low at 9415 as an initial target and then the 9386, back the 38.2% back from 9042. If that is passed, then bottom of my next circle is 9340. Am already at breakeven with stops, so probably let this run to the close.

#Dax $Dax

As suspected, shorts looking vulnerable without a push down, so have banked. On the hourly chart, yesterday's drop managed to get back above the 23.8% retracement of the move up from 9042 and is testing again today, having rejected at the 50% of yesterday's drop at 9507. This could be a lesser degree 'b' wave back, with the 76.4% above at 9556 being the target. I am looking long above the opening price of 9490, which would be in line with the 4hr trend as well, but expecting traction at that 76.4% target. Any falls below 9459 would probably be targeting 9386, being the 38.2% of the move up from 9042.

#Dax $Dax

Still a bit of a mixed picture between the weekly and daily clouds but on the 4hr, the bullish channel off the 8902 low is still up and price is above its ichimoku cloud. The 76.4% retracement from the June high sits at 9777 and given the price action so far, rejecting off the daily 200sma and the 61.8% but inside the 4hr channel, I am leaning towards more upside after this correction concludes to the downside. If that be the case, the daily cloud is vulnerable to being leaped, given the weekly support. For now, the hourly trend band is down and price is in the cloud, having made it back to where I got off yesterday. Whilst price is under the 9490 opening line for the day, I'll be looking for shorts again, but will not be hanging on to them for too long, given the above summary.

#Dax $Dax Dax

Bit of a slow turn overnight, but a useful rejection of the resistance levels discussed yesterday. My hourly stochs are looking heavy here, so out of shorts and waiting for the upside response to decide whether to short again or not. The hourly bollys are trending downhill and with the price under the daily open of 9561 and the trend band (red & white) looking to turn, no reason to look for longs for now, although it could be bouncy with the 1hr to 8hr (not shown) Ichimoku clouds all bullish. My eyes are on that orange hourly 200sma at 9300 or wherever it gets to by the time price reaches down to it, as my initial short target overall.

#Dax $Dax Dax

Price has opened this morning at 9582; this sits at the 127% extension of the 'a-b' up from the low, just shy of the 61.8% retracement of the high, at the 200sma for the daily and 4hour charts. Throw in the overbought stochs, the negative divergence on the 4hr & 1hr rsi's and I am still looking for a pull back. The hourly 200sma sits below it's ichimoku cloud at the 50% retracement target of 9247, which would also have price nested in the 4hr cloud. Enough of a goal for now, although I am mindful of the daily overhead cover there.

Dax - approaching 127% extension

I picked up this morning's long off the pull back but now looking to position short into the 127% extension. The daily chart is still showing a bearish wave and this drive up from the low is looking overbought and vulnerable to a reset. Assuming the move up is 'a' of the retracement, 'b' back to approx. 9100 would be a realistic goal. There is negative divergence on the hourly stocks and rsi, so as I say, looking for shorts, whilst the daily 20sma is red, albeit the hourly wave is still bullish.

DAX - price at the 20day SMA

Following on from my last post, price is now in the vicinity I was looking for to go short again. Price is at the 20day SMA, which is for now still bearish, with negative divergence appearing on the stochs and RSi studies and 100% of the prior 'a-b' met. However, the hourly MyWave is still clearly bullish, so no rush whilst waiting for that to start collapsing (or not as the case may be) and 127% maybe the target above or higher. It is a bank holiday here in the UK, so I am not doing anything today, but will reassess tomorrow looking for an intraday set up.

DAX Weekend Review

Daily Chart:

The Daily MyWave is bearish and as price reached down to the 9126 resistance line on Friday, it began to back off into the close. No positive divergence in the RSi at this stage, so anticipate lower prices in due course, although price is someway from the pink DMA, the green MyWave and the short term red wave, so a pull back to the blue dotted line looks a reasonable quest for any interim retracements, initially nearer 9367.

4hr Chart:

There was a hint of divergence on the 4hr RSi, Friday, but with only 3 waves down into that low on the momentum study, price seems to be in a wave 3 with a likely waves 4 & 5 to come. Price action seems stretched on the 4hr too and the same 9367 or maybe 9488 look good targets for re-shorting, if a retracement occurs. The DMA is a way off to the right at the moment, so something to burn up time next week would fit with the wave 4 retracement theme; maybe a triangle?


60min Chart:

The hourly chart was definitely showing positive divergence Friday, so a wave 3 was likely drawing to a close. The weekly 50% retracement zone sits up the 9488 area but again the DMA is way off to the right, so anticipate side wards action of some sort to burn up time. Looking to short higher up is how I am looking at the charts for now.

EURUSD Weekend Review

Daily Chart:

Quite clearly, the green daily MyWave is still bearish, and although a swing up seems to have begun on Friday, the RSi study is not showing any divergence into that low, usually found in terminal 5th waves. As such, I'll expect to play both sides of a corrective wave, shorting into strength and following the lower highs up on the 4hr chart. The momentum study in the first sub-chart suggests there is some time to go to relieve the oversold status and somewhere close to the pink Displaced MA would be a suitable target for a continuation downhill. I expect the 1.34518 to be the first area of resistance and then into MyWave above. Anything that penetrates the MyWave and the DMA would suggest something more bullish is on the cards.

4hr Chart:

The 4hr MyWave is also bearish for now and I anticipate a corrective swing continually reaching back into the MyWave to pick up lower highs and cashing out on higher highs. The 4hr DMA sits at that 1.34518 zone, so expect price to reach up to or over it and then either fall under it or over it, but fall nevertheless in response to it. This is likely to be a 'b' wave affair and could be steep to retest the low, even take it out if an expanded flat occurs. For now 1.33792 looks a good target to bank shorts and move long again, but all short term trades if this move up does prove corrective. When the momentum study reaches the green target zone in the sub-chart, I am looking for 3 waves to have occurred on the 4hr chart for a chance of the correction being over, but not a concern for now. Next week looks bullish albeit into a bearish wave.

60min Chart:

The regression channel from the 1.3649 high has been broken to the upside and price is also now above the weekly 50% retracement zone. The momentum study and RSi suggest we are in wave 4 of the 'c' leg in possibly 'A' up and I expect price to make a new high on Friday's action and then move either downhill or sidewards to test the hourly DMA. I think a test of the regression channel perimeter at about 1.3390 looks possible but depends on how long the new high takes, as this will move price action to the right and make the weekly 50% band more likely nearer 1.3410. I'd like to see 3 waves down on the hourly momentum to lose my shorts, so a pop and drop Monday/Tuesday would be perfect. If this wave up is to be corrective, there should be plenty of choppy price action, especially in the pull backs as they will be corrections within a correction.

So in summary, the bigger picture still holds bearish but a move up on the 4hr chart is likely playable in both directions as a retracement. The absence of positive divergence on any of these 3 timeframes suggests there will be more downside in due course, so anticipate lower highs to be tested over and over as the market find its feet into any move uphill. Anything different from this wave personality and I'll have to rethink next week's trading strategy.