EURJPY

Re-covered longs again on bounce up to near prior high. Anticipate this being a 'b' wave in an 'abc' correction of that spike up this morning, so 'c' to come to the downside. Even if it isn't, that would mean there was still a whole retracement process to go through, so happy to cover again and see if I can get me some more pips. Been a fabulous couple of days rolling this strategy over and over whilst keeping the longs in the background, just in case of the bog one coming in.

USDJPY & EURJPY & EURUSD

USDJPY making its way in. No pulse move down to finish matters off as yet but I am banking my EURJPY short cover, leaving just EURUSD shorts. Basically, I am looking for USDJPY to take EURJPY up with it, leaving EURUSD to wind down in a 4th wave. Hopefully, any further downside in EURJPY will be met in part by the EURUSD shorts. Well that is the idea!

Dow Jones $indu

I make that 5 down in this pattern. Adding longs.

EURUSD

Poke out of the diagonal should be terminal. 38.2% retracement of 1-4 is approx 1.3400- see you there.

Dow Jones $ indu

Further to this mornings post, have started buying into Dow here. More risk upside than down I think and will start chipping away and try and encourage it northbound. Orange dashed line marks the initial target on 2nd and 3rd charts.

EURJPY

Have covered my longs with that spike there - with EURUSD getting into target zone of 1.3600 ish, would rather see how EURJPY reacts to that coming off the boil. Also price underneath the pink FLD and prior 4th wave as discussed earlier.

EURUSD

Nice - have closed longs and added to shorts for larger degree wave 4 downhill, when this rise up ends.

EURJPY

That looks like a little ED that could set the journey upstairs on its way. Back above those opening ranges will be interesting, I reckon.

USDJPY

When this turns up, it is likely to be a monster, so be careful on the short side.

EURUSD

Lots of reasons why price is stuck, but I like the simple one: we are at last year's high and testing it before moving along, in whichever direction the market decides. For now, the daily pivot is moving up after consolidation and so is its weekly average.

EURJPY

I'll write more about the Cyclic Phasing at the weekend, but for now, with the 80day (56trading days) due about the 15th October and with all the 3 leg moves going on, I wonder if this might be the eventual outcome. Ending Diagonal with plenty of waves still to go. We should not be going too much lower today if this is the case.

EURJPY

Banked the shorts: I'll look again if price breaches lower opening range line. Looking a little anemic at present and might just be a 'b' in the 4th or not as the case might be. 133.30 is area of prior 4th and the 0.875d.fld and would be a great place to bank some longs and cover short again, if the momentum peters out. 

EURJPY

Cover taken and stop for that is above that last move up, which looks like that was a wave 4. As such, we should be working our way down in wave 5, which more than likely will be an ED. I am going to move my cover to break even once the London opening range low gives way and then just wait for either a spike lower to bank the shorts or for the stop to be taken out on the way back up, hopefully leaving my longs in the way for the main thrust higher. All good plans....

EURJPY

Bounce looking good so far; have put cover just under the London opening range high.

Dow Jones $indu

Getting close for another bite of a try uphill. My count suggests it should stick a little longer this time, although last nights pump was well appreciated. I'll try and buy near that low or lower when I can see an ending pattern. 15000 sounds tidy!

EURJPY

So, in line with USDJPY, looks like a final wind in. Give it this count for now.

Looking like an extended 5th out of the diagonal - usually a sign to buy - increased my longs into that.

USDJPY

This is a bit more like it: fun that is. Looks like USDJPY is making its final run into the end of 'c' of 'E' to complete the very bullish daily triangle formation. This is of course dragging down EURJPY into a similar pattern, albeit somewhat untidier in my opinion. When this ends here, I am anticipating fireworks and think I am going to take my limit orders off my EURJPY longs!!

EURJPY

Back at the lower bolly's and the guess on it still being a 'b' wave has proven correct. 'c' target is still the upper bollys and given there has only been about 20 pips decay since yesterday, the price target is still approx 134. Hoping for something a bit more assertive today. Now, back to bed!

P.S. won't be too keen to close unless see clean ending pattern, just in case we have been inside a 1-2.

Dow Jones $indu

All day I have been waiting for that set up and it kicks off within 10 mins of placing the trade - now why can't the EUR pairs do the same!! Banked.

EURUSD

It has been a dull afternoon but might be that the 4th wave in my expanding diagonal was a contracting diagonal itself. Breakout seems to be sticking, so looking for that 1.3630 area to close longs and re-short again.

Dow Jones $indu

Time to test the count me thinks. Ending diagonal into today's opening ranges on the boundary of the regression channel from the top. Might only be worth 100-200 pips but the count might be to bearish, so here's hoping for a few more!

EURJPY

Well, this is horrendous and when it is usually so slow it hurts, it is usually a 'b' wave inside a 'b' wave. As such, price could move either way depending on whether it is going to zigzag or flat but for now, I'll take 133.40 in a flat to lose longs and re-short. And it started off so well!

EURJPY Storyboarding with FLDs

I'll post these charts now but add the explanation later, whilst I sit on my hands and wait for 134.00. Key inflection point at the moment and a useful study in using FLDs to explain the option alongside Elliott Waves and other studies. For those interested in such matters, I'll write up later.

EURUSD

With ongoing strength in the EURJPY, I am still keen on seeing a diagonal to fruition on EURUSD. Looks like wave4 may have been a bit deeper and provides for an overthrow target that must be less than 1.3630 if a contracting version and in this format (less than wave 3). I'll take that for my longs and make sure I am out of EURJPY at same time to reassess everything.

EURJPY

Well that worked! Worth bearing in mind that although the 134.00 level provides an a=c equivalence target for a 'c' of 'B' up as per my last post, the retracement down to the 100% level at 131.66 maybe all that we get in that direction for a while. That is to say, that the actual 'e' leg maybe on of course and the current regression channel UTL sits in the 136 area for now. So, any zoom, zoom, zoom and perhaps banking the 134 maybe premature!! Just a couple of sizeable FLDs to deal with first though!

EURJPY

Looking to lose my shorts on a break up here, targeting 134.00 for the longs at the bolly bands and an a=c equivalency.

EURJPY & EURUSD

As this noise in the middle takes shape in the EURJPY, it does appear to be a 'b' wave expanding flat, leading to a likely flat correction of the drop from 134.935. As such, I am hoping for a push to the top bollys in conjunction with a drive up in EURUSD. Hopefully, one of them at least will telegraph the end of their respective moves so that longs can be banked and shorts unleashed. If NFP is coming out today, could be a volatile day - I just need to remember I am flat until I do something, so make sure the signal and pattern is clear!

EURUSD

Whether this is leading or a wave 4, there should be another pop up to look at for shorting; either a wave 5 in 5 or a retracement pattern. Either way, I am aiming to be short at the end of it.

EURUSD

This is looking a better bet for shorting than playing EURJPY this morning.

EURJPY

This is stuck in the middle ....again. Have gone flat on rumours NFP may be released today and will relook when price gets to the bolly bands.

EURJPY

That is 3 attempts at trying to break the 3.5d FLD - will EURJPY come down with EURUSD and join USDJPY on its happy journey downhill?

EURUSD

Spike out of Expanding Diagonal pattern to finish this leg up now taken out last high

US Government to shutdown

Has it started?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/first-u-s-shutdown-in-17-years-at-midnight-seen-probable.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/government-nears-shutdown-as-obama-rejects-paying-ransom.html

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/09/30/hope-fades-us-looks-like-its-headed-for-a-government-shutdown-tonight/

EURJPY

See the green 'trough' below: well that line is the next FLD sequence down from the 3.5d FLD just been pipped above. If not a swan dive, then a slouch to the right to pick it up later and a lower breakout point for the 3.5d, is likely. Added to shorts.

EURJPY

Not a lot achieved this evening on this pair.  I am still going for the a 'b' wave up from the low this morning and now looking forward to the 'c' of 'c' to finish this retracement before the rise proper. This is a  lot more agreeable when you are heavily short, as I am at this stage, but  without going over everything going on in the chart, little is broken in the 'staying short' storyboard, although matters are a little strained at the moment. If there is no follow through to the upside, expect more downside is my opinion for now.