EURUSD: 7.53am

Following on from yesterday, still think this is a corrective move down (A, abc for B and then C - see how the SMi clarifies the waves)and price will be searching the tops again. Could of, should of played the 'C' down but was more concerned with picking up the move up and missed out. Combined with calling US Oil correctly but getting whipsawed, bit of a neutral day yesterday, but hopefully a move north bound will help in the EURUSD.

EURUSD: 3.20pm

Well, I might have got my long at 1.3460, but wished I'd not bothered! Next support line down is now being tested at 1.3413. Still looking to catch a low. Double neg divergence on the SMi and the blue daily trend line is not supportive of this being an impulsive move down from the top (trend line running through the price action, not above it). It could be wrong of course, as could the SMi, but I am still looking for a test of the top. Catch up later.

US Oil: 2.14pm

Following the game plan this, but not low enough to catch my longs and my shorts have stopped out for BE. Will look at shorting the high later.

EURUSD: 2.09pm

Well, go figure....I got my entry long at 1.3460. The 1.62x extension of 'A' would get us just under the high where I'll be shorting.

Those candles down in the 'c' of 'B' look mighty scary, but they will fuel a 'C' wave up as the market gets to grip with being too early. I just need a low to hold & form here!

EURUSD 1.38pm

Running a similar count as US Oil in the EURUSD. Waiting for 'B' leg to give me a long entry close to the 1.3460 area or bustle through the prior low with conviction to get the downside a rolling.

US Oil: 1.23pm

Slight tidy up of EW count. Given the price action has been timid till now, I am continuing to push for that to have been a 'b' wave, with the 'c' portion of that likely to end at the 1.62x extension (approx 96.905). If this be the case then the 'C' leg 100% extension of 'A' would be right under the high at 98.04. Neat if it works out. Regardless, I managed to keep hold of shorts and will see how the drop pans out. Anything strongly through 96.905 and I'll hang on in there a bit longer.

US Oil: 11.02am

Whilst we are waiting for usual Thursday madness to ensue: possible leading diagonal down from top would be followed by 'abc' retrace. If this is a flat or zigzag, we should see move down towards last low/diagonal perimeter and then back up. Smi seems to agree that we are toppy here.

Whilst the 97.05 lower high holds, I am running with this EW count. That is a lot of pips if we get a 'B' down, 'C' up for '2' and then a '3' down. Well, it has been quiet....gotta fill time with something this morning!

Dow: 10.46am

Well, here we are again. Starting to look interesting again for low risk shorts. SMi could be showing negative divergence or incomplete move up. Can not know in advance if top will be taken out, but I can control the risk by being as close to the top as possible to short.

US Oil 10.22am

Price action continues to probe the 97.05 lower high area, but no break so far, so my shorts are safe for now.

Dow: 7.47am

That monthly trend line is looking great as an initial target for shorts but the SMi doesn't look complete to the upside yet and with the weekly trend line still green for buy, I am going to wait some more. Another poke at the high perhaps?

EURUSD:7.41am

Weekly trend line is green for buy. Happy that I took off my shorts last night at 1.3512 after that tight entry, but still room in the SMi there to make my buy target at 1.3460. This is right on the monthly trend zone too, so if the higher low holds there, we could have a worthwhile 'c' up to play. Food for my thought: if price ain't going anywhere, it hasn't got to where it want's to go in the opposite direction to the one you are hoping for!

US Oil 7.19am

Weekly trend is red for sell. Lower High at 97.05 held overnight with 2hr SMi looking supportive. If 94.94 low can fall, that brings 92.64 into range. Nice pips!

US Oil:7.44pm

Weekly trend is currently down (red). Price has made it back to 97.05 after a lurch down and then up. Able to sell March contract with tight stop above 97.05 plus spread. Not trying to over analyze this. Trend is down and a lower high has been back-tested with low risk. The rest is up to the market.

EURUSD: 7.40pm

Closed shorts. Momentum dead on this leg but more pips for the bank. Look at this tomorrow.

Dow:4.35pm

Whereas EURUSD seems to be sporting some clean My-Waves, the Dow is still hopeless. Glad I took this mornings pips off the table. Assuming this will be an 'a' wave up but on sidelines until something looks more formed.

EURUSD:4.27pm

Not reached my buyzone yet from earlier and looks to have been testing the prior 4th wave (or 'b' wave) for a bit with the daily My-wave formed cleanly to downside - taken a short with stop above triangle on the 85.4% fibfan, down to the buy zone, if it holds.

EURUSD: 1.58pm

Another reason I suspect an uplift on the Dow is the 'b' looking retracement on the EURUSD. I banked my shorts on Monday on the drop and hope to catch that low for 'c' wave up and sell the top again. All in a perfect world of course, but that weekly trend is still green for bullish and until it turns red, I gotta expect bounces into the turn. EURUSD does like to go back to within 2-3 pips of a low when consolidating, and I'll be looking for 1.3460 if possible, although 88% would get to 1.3474 from which a 1.62x extension, drops just shy of the top at 1.3710. Fingers crossed.

Dow:1.52pm

Longs closed for now. Straight candle and 2pm coming up. Enough for me for moment and see if get an 'abc' to come again.

No downward formation on the daily My-Wave suggests sellers still waiting for price to come back. May not happen of course but I'll bank and wait.

Dow: 1.21pm

Stop is at BE, so just the outcome to decide now. My-Wave is telling me nothing at the moment other than price prefers to be in the Wave to come, me thinks, than the one it was in going up hill. If price makes it to the higher low without My-Wave forming properly, I'll be expecting a strong bounce to consolidate into the new wave in due course. Something pleasing about banking and re-loading if it goes my way!

DOW:12.33pm

Enjoying this a little more than yesterday's AUDUSD flop. Weekly trend is still green for up but with the last higher low at 13862 and a short entry available with tiny risk, worth a short to there at least and see what the reaction is.

Daily My-Wave not even turned yet to the downside. Be interesting to see what the momentum and formation looks like running into that higher low at the bottom of the chart. Will it wash right over, or go back up again and if it does, will it be within the downward wave formation still or commence a new wave up? Thoughts on my mind.

AUDUSD: 7.55pm

Well, if that is what the 2hr FLD throws to the upside.....

What will the daily do? Out of longs at the top of weekly channel tonight if gets there, and re-look tomorrow.

AUDUSD:5.24pm

A slightly frustrating day so far as price probed further towards the range channel low. But I can not see anything has changed. Break of the green daily FLD should see price move initially to the top of the channel and then after a pull back towards the FLD, onwards to the weekly FLD above - this is in a dome formation signalling bottoming tension on prices.

Looking for confirmation of move underway with break of 2hr FLD and combined regression channel from channel high. Still long.

AUDUSD: 10.26am

My second half allocation long is now on. All I need now is a spike up to get the unwind going. I'll be happy with R2 or R3 today (of course!!)

AUDUSD: 8.03am

Since the weekend report, price has pushed up through the thick red weekly trend line and then retraced strongly. The retracement may not be over as the trendline is still facing downhill but with price just under the green daily FLD and the weekly donchian channel high a good 60/70 pips away, I am looking for buying opportunities today to start dragging the trend line around with the light pink monthly FLD providing support.

I am looking for a low SMI cluster to provide an upward thrust with low risk that takes out the 2hr & daily FLD in its wake. Although there will be a tendency then for these to be retraced as the My-Wave forms (just like GBPUSD overnight), the proximity to the two FLD's and the gap to the weekly donchian channel top, leaves room for a short term reward. I am long here for half allocation accepting there could be a bit more downside till the 2hr FLD breaks up.

GBPUSD:6.48pm

The daily My-Wave continues to come under pressure and looks like it is trying to turn now. The 2hr FLD is working as a great stop line and I'll move to B/E now and see how this rides overnight. Going to take consolidation somewhere to prove the My-Wave is reliable which could take the stop but rather remove all risk overnight.

Slightly different view of matters here using a weekly donchian channel of the rolling high and low prices and the daily, weekly and monthly trend FLD's. Price is running up the underside of the green daily FLD having bounced (and why I pounced!) off the channel low. The top of the green FLD is a good initial target with likely acceleration if it gets taken out, through the top of the Donchian too and off up to the weekly and monthly FLD's at 1.6000 ish.

GBPUSD:2.39pm

Following on from the weekend summary, the daily My-Wave is still formed to the downside but appears to be rolling up again (as opposed to 'pinching in tact'. Also, the SMI position, price holding above the 2hr FLD and price just under the daily pivot, suggests a pop up could be spikey. Taken a long position here for a possible move above the daily FLD and to the weekly channel high (blue line)

EURUSD:1.41pm

Closed EURUSD shorts for now at daily FLD. Will wait for SMI cycle to get back to top and reassess.

Price at bottom of daily range. Could press on of course but prefer to re-enter near top of range. Will look elsewhere for a bit.

Not too different from the FTSE100 post. Price is at the top end of the daily, weekly and monthly range channels. Buying at the daily range low if My-Wave stays formed to the upside at daily range lows and selling the top of the daily range if My-Wave is formed downhill is all we can do. For nor now, I think the weekly range low and monthly trend line at 13600 is a good shorting target initially and then down into the monthly FLD 'trough', following its cut in the January, and the monthy range channel low near 13000. Given this grind higher, I would have thought any move to the weekly range low would be strikingly different visually. We shall see.

My-Wave had to turn over to get an upside formation this time around and the daily range low at 13813 should see My-Wave and the daily pivot cracked for a bit. Holding this formation seems to be the problem through the SMI cycle of course. The technique for an elegant entry (covered a few times this weekend, if only for my own benefit!) is to see the My-Wave stay in formation when the SMI cycle reaches either over bought or over sold. If this co-oincides with a daily range low or high, then there should be a good risk reward. For now, I await a downward formation to hold and that means staying on the side lines at the moment.

FTSE100: weekend summary

Daily, weekly and monthly range channels all facing uphill of course, but price is at the top of them all. The test will come at the bottom of the weekly range channel and the monthly trend in the 6095-6158 area. Previous pull backs into the weekly channel have been footholds for another surge up and indeed any attempt to move this whole grind up, downhill, will need the monthly low and FLD to fail at 5890. So plenty to do just to get this truck moving around the other way. Selling at the top of the daily range will be my preferred approach until I see how the monthly trend reacts to a test at the weekly range low.

First things first though: My-Wave is currently facing north but a push down on the daily low at 6271 will be under the Daily Pivot too and see the 2hr FLD under pressure. If My-Wave can stay formed to the downside on an SMI overbought position, then a re-break of the 2hr FLD will be a good place to short near the top of the daily range. For now, on the sidelines.

AUDUSD: Weekend summary

Another USD pair looking for a low! Daily and Weekly Range channel lows are in the monthly FLD area and a test of the 1.0344 low from the 26th December 2012. Looks like another leg down to work off a diagonal although key that the FLD holds.

The Daily My-Wave has been an untidy mess all week which seems to confirm that this is a diagonal down. Another SMI cycle down might just do the job here with the weekly and daily range lows a great target area to look for a turn. Again, My-wave needs to turn up, and get retested along with the 2hr FLD; with the SMI in oversold there lies the elegant entry. Have covered this a few times in the other summaries this weekend.

USDCAD: Weekend summary

Price appears to be retracing the prior leg up and is fast approaching the daily range low, Monthly trend line, it's FLD and the weekly range low. There is a good 60 pips across those, so again no rush to capture the turn before it actually happens.

The daily My-Wave is not looking under any pressure here and is still facing downhill with the 2hr FLD providing cover. Need to see My-Wave turn, then get retested to buy in, so plenty of work to be done here on top of the descent finishing off. Maybe have a look again around the 0.9940-0.9920 area to see what is happening but not in any rush to buy on this SMI cycle.

USDCHF: Weekend summary

Felt like my nemesis for 2 weeks this, but price now at the daily, weekly and monthly range channel lows. Looking for this to be an expanded flat 'b' leg following the clear 'abc' to 0.9388, so something impulsive uphill, please, with the weekly range high and monthly FLD at 0.9293 being a good start.

Matters seem to be a little further along than the GBPUSD pair, with the initial attempt to turn My-Wave already in play. Another SMI cycle down on Sunday night, Monday morning with the 2hr FLD broken to the downside, then the low holding and then the FLD re-breaking to the upside. Now that would be a fantastic elegant entry to buy.

GBPUSD: Weekend Summary

We have already had a turn up at 1.5674 on the 28th January where the daily and weekly range channels coincided. The monthly range channel has been going sidewards, and with the weekly (blue) seemingly flattening out in the monthly range lows, it seems that this strike down into the daily lows is an opportunity to buy as a retracement move. The weekly range high, monthly trend and it's FLD all sit is the 1.6000 area and that would be my initial target, buying at the daily range lows where possible.

Daily My-wave was obviously down on Friday and pushing the daily range low with strength. As the weekly low is some distance away, and the Monthly range low (from above chart) is still facing downhill, there is no need to rush any entry here, although the SMI cluster is oversold for now. Would be looking for the My-Wave to get turned over to the upside and then for price to press back to test that turn, offering an elegant entry in due course (wave 1 and then wave 2). The 2hr FLD (orange) is looking prone to being captured soon, but given it is facing downhill, it also needs to flatten, get back tested and start rising along with the My-Wave. I reckon this pair will get spikey and I hope it will settle down a bit to allow a comfortable higher low to enter on safely.

EURUSD: Weekend update

Price pushed the top of the daily (green), weekly (blue) and monthly (charcoal) range channels on Friday and price got very spikey. Plenty of 'abc's hitting 100% extensions in the 1.3710 area and plenty of room in both the current monthly trend (dark pink) and it's 'topping' FLD for any falls to be relatively significant. How price reacts around the channel lows is key, with subsequent short entries preferred at the top of the daily (green)channel, if a bear trend exerts and persists. For now, all of the range channels and the monthly trend line are facing up for bullish; if anything bearish is to get going beyond the channel lows will likely require consolidation to flatten out the channels and move price out to the right to find room to descend.

The Daily My-Wave is still up but there is enough room in the SMI cluster to see the daily range channel low at 1.35477 pushed hard Monday. As this would be below the My-Wave and the Daily Pivot, we could start to see the up-trend start to unravel with the weekly range channel low and monthly trend median being initial targets (blue and pink at bottom of page). I continue to stay short EURUSD to that area with price playing around with the 2 hr FLD (orange) indecisively. The 'cups' are being induced by the spikeyness in the ending diagonal, but a clear bounce off the FLD underside should seal a decent decline and smoothen matters out.