One Month of compression on VIX

Expecting this to pop to the upside which will likely clear out some downside in the S&P500. 

Dax rise looking mature given weekly cycle analysis

                Looking forward to seeing where the market gets to by the end of March 2017.

Dax at resistance

Interesting price action on the Dax on Friday. Could not help but notice the swings in commentary from negative to positive across my reading list, as price came up to the resistance line from 2014 and the 50% line in this Schiff Pitchfork study from the high.There has been so much energy around this resistance line, with price gaps since May aligned with emotional responses in the press.

I tweaked the StochRSI study to chime with the turns in price trend and noticed the similarity in patterns highlighted in yellow. Of course, they are somewhat distant cousins in size, but that was the interesting bit for me, when looking at the price action above.....it is more volatile and taking in greater distances. I like that Pitchfork study and the placement around the price action, but it will be somewhat easier with hindsight to determine direction from here; Friday's close seems to be another rest stop break!

Dax monthlys

Oscillators on monthly log scale more positive and little price decay since last screenshot whilst the first of the two oscillators  holds.

Similarly on non-log. Some work to do here to break oscillator trend line to upside but for now that dotted trend line in the chart and 50% retracement seems to have held up price action. If monthly oscillators start pushing up, no point fighting with the shorter time frames.

Dax in monthly log scale

In terms of targets, the monthly sma200 looks like a great overall story in log scale.

A possible expanding diagonal on the monthly

Price has so far reacted positively to the first test of the weekly sma200, but a combination of technical studies on these longer range charts suggest there is more work to do to the downside. Whilst the weekly and monthly oscillators remains captive to their own trend lines, the 'wave 4 expanding diagonal' prognosis looks interesting, especially more so, if price fulfils that journey to set up wave 5.

Dax weekly RSi looks poised but for what?

 

Right shoulder looks like a possible relief move for the RSi and if the Cloud can contain price action, the market may give us another close look at that 9300 support line in due course. However one looks at the story, it is evolving underneath that long term trend line at the moment!

Comparing Dow 2008 drop to current price action

Daily Chart -
Mapping the 2008 drop and overlaying on current price action

 

Monthly Chart -
where it sits in long term cycles chart

Dax perching on the ledge....

http://invst.ly/wbzy

Will it hold, retest 9300 or 8300......we shall see.

Dax at support still

Dax sitting above median line between annual pivot at 9953 and R1 at 11552. Plenty of testing banked already above 10752 now on the 4hr chart, and RSi burning overbought conditions with price action in neutral. Could push on towards R1 if this support holds. Click text for chart.

Dax review 18/10/2015

Last weekend's notes cover all points. 50% retracement line of last year's low to this year's high is at 10390 with the yearly mid pivot at 10752 (Pivot was 9953 backtested last week and R1 is 11552). If back test holds then those are my next two target points above.

Dax Review 3/10/2015

This monthly chart shows the wave counts assumed to be in play. Whether this is wave 4 done, concluding, or if something more complicated pushing out to the right over the next few months (triangle) is to come, is perhaps the bigger picture question. Certainly the SMi setting being used, suggests we have only seen a single wave down thus far, comprised of an 'abc' through the weekly lens (see chart 3).

The second monthly chart here focuses on the RSi study, which I posted during the week and clearly warns of a test of this down draft at the very least. Ignore the rest of the chart, which is meant for lower time frames. The previous RSi cycles at this degree, set off higher highs; whether this one will remains to be seen, but downside seems limited without a reset of some sort.


In this weekly chart, the annual pivots and their mid lines are in show. Breaching last year's low of 8354 will require price to push past the 78.6% retracement of the move out of that low and with the annual pivot at 9953, the current wave count assumed down from the top, the monthly RSi study in the last chart, and the weekly SMi study in this, chasing the downside may be painful for shorters who hang around too long. With three weekly candles attacking and holding above the 78.6% retracement at 9234 and the annual mid pivot of 9525, these aforementioned studies provide a platform for a test of the annual pivot at 9953, and then the higher 10752 and 11552 pivots initially.

The daily wave formation is of course bearish still, but those positive divergences in the RSi have me watching the lower order waves.

The two hour wave held firm on Friday with an interesting bounce out of daily S1 after the US announcements. Further ferreting of lower prices may still test this bullish wave, either compounding the positive divergences, or collapsing the wave. For now, looking to buy drops whilst the formation holds and keep an eye on the impact on the daily wave. Expect volatility to continue either way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dax 29/9/2015

Lots of doom and gloom out there: monthly RSi looks eerily similar to previous drops.

Dax: 200smas

Ongoing wave 4 appears to be retracing with market asking if the drops are over yet.

200sma from monthly to 30min chart duration marked up in this 2hr chart. The cluster between 10906 & 11155 are just above the 61.8% retracement of this move down, which I have at 10850. A move above 10467 that holds, might see a test of that higher zone. Interesting place to hunt for shorts down to test that low and the weekly 200sma a little closer! 

Dax Weekly Chart

Showing two counts here: blue wave 4 over on monthly chart and 'c' of red 'b' due. Either way, looking long whilst yesterday's low holds. That 10900 area had plenty of attention of late without failure

This daily chart looks at the count closer. This could support either of the above options with the blue 4 being the red 'a' in the weekly. The trend line test looks like a 'c' wave is possible here at minimum and whilst that trend line holds, going to follow it up.

Dax Review 19th July 2015



Monthly & Weekly charts:
Given placement of monthly stochastics and
continued negative direction of weeklys', I am staying
 with this count until the 4hr, below, softens



Daily & 4 hr charts:
Perhaps an expanding triangle in a 'B' wave or maybe
 a new trend up as started. I'll sell down that 4hr stochastic
and see where it lands.
 

Death of Common Sense

Death of Common Sense: paper

Dax 8th July 2015

 
 

Time for a little relief? Clouds on Daily chart on left and 4hr chart on right suggest that approx. 11200 might be a good place to consider selling again...until then, might look for a lift up, given suspenders working into bolly band lows on daily and positive divergence into the prior low.

Dax Review 5th July 2015

Not a lot to add to my last counts; hardly had to move the legends. Looking for move down to breakout zone from combination bollingers near 10,000. Economic and political woes not seemingly having any impact on the overall counts. Check back in posts to see how bullish move after this drop should usher in a new high before a larger degree wave 4.

Dax Review 19th June 2016

Monthly & Weekly charts: assuming that this move down to 10500 zone is just a 'a' leg in blue wave 4. May turn into a triangle rather than this simpler pattern, but looking to buy 10400-10600 in a longer term uptrend, that does not look under any stress from this move back to the break out zone on the daily below

Daily chart shows the breakout zone being tested a little lower down and no signs of the pitchfork being broken to the upside as yet. Selling this lower into the buy zone and adding to that commitment on break up.