One Month of compression on VIX

Expecting this to pop to the upside which will likely clear out some downside in the S&P500. 

Dax rise looking mature given weekly cycle analysis

                Looking forward to seeing where the market gets to by the end of March 2017.

Dax at resistance

Interesting price action on the Dax on Friday. Could not help but notice the swings in commentary from negative to positive across my reading list, as price came up to the resistance line from 2014 and the 50% line in this Schiff Pitchfork study from the high.There has been so much energy around this resistance line, with price gaps since May aligned with emotional responses in the press.

I tweaked the StochRSI study to chime with the turns in price trend and noticed the similarity in patterns highlighted in yellow. Of course, they are somewhat distant cousins in size, but that was the interesting bit for me, when looking at the price action above.....it is more volatile and taking in greater distances. I like that Pitchfork study and the placement around the price action, but it will be somewhat easier with hindsight to determine direction from here; Friday's close seems to be another rest stop break!

Dax monthlys

Oscillators on monthly log scale more positive and little price decay since last screenshot whilst the first of the two oscillators  holds.

Similarly on non-log. Some work to do here to break oscillator trend line to upside but for now that dotted trend line in the chart and 50% retracement seems to have held up price action. If monthly oscillators start pushing up, no point fighting with the shorter time frames.

Dax in monthly log scale

In terms of targets, the monthly sma200 looks like a great overall story in log scale.

A possible expanding diagonal on the monthly

Price has so far reacted positively to the first test of the weekly sma200, but a combination of technical studies on these longer range charts suggest there is more work to do to the downside. Whilst the weekly and monthly oscillators remains captive to their own trend lines, the 'wave 4 expanding diagonal' prognosis looks interesting, especially more so, if price fulfils that journey to set up wave 5.

Dax weekly RSi looks poised but for what?

 

Right shoulder looks like a possible relief move for the RSi and if the Cloud can contain price action, the market may give us another close look at that 9300 support line in due course. However one looks at the story, it is evolving underneath that long term trend line at the moment!

Comparing Dow 2008 drop to current price action

Daily Chart -
Mapping the 2008 drop and overlaying on current price action

 

Monthly Chart -
where it sits in long term cycles chart

Dax perching on the ledge....

http://invst.ly/wbzy

Will it hold, retest 9300 or 8300......we shall see.

Dax at support still

Dax sitting above median line between annual pivot at 9953 and R1 at 11552. Plenty of testing banked already above 10752 now on the 4hr chart, and RSi burning overbought conditions with price action in neutral. Could push on towards R1 if this support holds. Click text for chart.

Dax review 18/10/2015

Last weekend's notes cover all points. 50% retracement line of last year's low to this year's high is at 10390 with the yearly mid pivot at 10752 (Pivot was 9953 backtested last week and R1 is 11552). If back test holds then those are my next two target points above.